Half-Season Review of My 2015 Fantasy Football Busts

Time to take a look back at my busts for this season. Like last season, nearly nailed all of these. I believe I’ll look better on the RBs by the end of the season for reasons I’ll point out.

QB

Peyton Manning – Denver Broncos – ADP: 3 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 29th – Grade: A+++

I actually think his arm has looked a lot better than people have been suggesting but I never imagined the O line would be as terrible as it has been. The crazy thing to think about now with Manning is, if he returns for another season, does he even get drafted in 10 team leagues? Very possible he’ll still be on the waiver wire after draft day in a lot of leagues next season.

Matthew Stafford – Detroit Lions – ADP: 9 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 21st – Grade: A+++

Almost criminally overrated at this point and is showing it. His line is bad but he’s just an average NFL QB, at best. I’ve never owned him and never will.

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RB

DeMarco Murray – Philadelphia Eagles – ADP: 8 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 12th – Grade: C

If not for so many injuries to RBs, he’d barely be top 20 right now. The Eagles do look like they are turning things around but it’s hard to imagine Murray finishes top 10 unless more injuries gift him the spot. Tougher sledding behind an O line that couldn’t block nearly the entire first half of the season.

Frank Gore – Indianapolis Colts – ADP: 14 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 10th – Grade: C

Hasn’t had his bye and, if you take away the last game, he drops out of the top 20. Still looks fantastic when he runs but his line is awful. I thought he could put up numbers but not behind that blocking. Impressed with him to this point but still wouldn’t trust him on my team.

Melvin Gordon – San Diego Chargers – ADP: 16 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 46th – Grade: A+++

Another one you can blame a bit on the line but his ball security problems aren’t helping either. Really looked great at the start as a runner but only so much he can do.

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WR

Andre Johnson – Indianapolis Colts – ADP: 16 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 48th – Grade: A+++

As I said at the outset, I love his talent but too many mouths and the Colts offense was atrocious at the start. Playing better now but pretty much no way he gets near the top 20 this season. Will go undrafted in smaller leagues next season, for sure.

Sammy Watkins – Buffalo Bills – ADP: 20 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 44th – Grade: A+++

Injuries have hurt but, again, be wary of WRs on Rex Ryan-coached teams. It’s just not happening regardless of how talented Watkins is. Buyer beware until he’s playing under another staff.

Victor Cruz – New York Giants – ADP: 33 – Current Season Scoring at Position: No Rank

Hasn’t stepped on the field and I’m certainly surprised by that. Still, it was obvious he wasn’t going to be 100% early and it looks like he won’t be late in the season either. As I said, better upside guys behind him and not worth the pick he cost.

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TE

Julius Thomas – Jacksonville Jaguars – ADP: 6 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 38th – Grade: A++

Even after he returned from the suspension, he’s been a dud. One good game and a bunch of stinkers. Not an elite player at his position and in a terrible situation. I wouldn’t expect that to change next season if he remains a Jag.

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Defense

Philadelphia Eagles – ADP: 5 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 5th – Grade: F

Definitely the one I got dead-wrong. I was right about them not repeating on the TDs. Wrong about the talent level. They’ve been a ball-hawking unit and it looks like they are getting better as the season progresses. Good unit and deserving of being called one of the best fantasy options.

Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football Analysis – Week 6

Week 6 – vs Cincy – L 21-34

QB: Taylor DNP.  Manuel looked fine and played pretty well considering opponent.  A decent option if match up is good while Taylor is out.  Still a run first O no matter what.

RB: McCoy a good game and looked great as the work horse.  Moving well again and could be a stud as long as they aren’t losing.  Great situation for him.

WR: Watkins a good game but isn’t completely healthy.  Only a good play when they are going to lose.  His talent just doesn’t matter as much as the O.  Woods an average game but just can’t seem to put it together consistently.

TE: Clay a nice PPR game and continues to look really good.  Catching everything thrown at him right now and should continue to be PPR play.

OL: Playing well in run game and will dominate some games.  Pass protection is shaky at times but not the worst.

Def: Played worse against the run but better against the pass in this one.  Pass rush was nullified.  Wasn’t dominating up front against the run.  Gave up good games to total RBs, #2 WR and TE.  Continuing to get killed by secondary options in passing game.

Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football Analysis – Week 2

Week 2 – vs NE – L 32-40

QB: Taylor a big fantasy game but definitely some problems in this one.  Some bad throws and got sacked a ton.  Does protect himself fairly well on runs but has a long way to go right now, development-wise.

RB: McCoy looked good while Williams snagged another TD.  McCoy will continue to be workhorse but Williams is really interesting.  Has the size and speed to be a stud runner.  Might be one of the best handcuffs in the league.

WR: Watkins and Woods good games while Harvin was average.  Plenty of talent here but it’s going to be difficult to predict who will be the stud every week.  Add in to that a young and inexperienced QB and this is a headache.

TE: Clay nabbed a TD and will produce occasionally like this.  I wouldn’t expect any consistency.

OL: Good run blocking against weak run D.  Terrible pass protection.  Part of that is on young QB but they certainly had trouble with the blitz.

Def: Solid against the run but annihilated by passing game.  This will probably be most games for them against teams that can handle blitz.  Gave up monster games to receiving RB, TE, and #1 WR.  Good game to #2 WR.

Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football Analysis – Week 1

Week 1 – vs Indy – W 27-14

QB: Taylor was pretty good against weak D but didn’t have to do much.  Ran well and mostly protected himself.  Have to see how he handles more pressure before I’d buy into it.

RB: McCoy looked okay but line let him down at times.  Numbers suffered a bit because of that and running late with a big lead when D knows it’s coming.  Williams looked strong and got the longish TD.  Looks like a pretty powerful runner that knows how to find holes.

WR: Watkins blanketed by Davis and got zero.  Harvin a good game getting a nice long TD where he beat D deep and made great grab.  Hard to trust but might be more consistent in this situation.

TE: Clay looked okay but not going to put up enough numbers to warrant starting most of the time.  A solid player but not good enough for fantasy most of the time.

OL: Pretty good against weak D.  Missed some guys occasionally but will work that out as the season goes on.  Solid all-around in this one.

Def: A ton of blitzing and looked good doing it.  Brought 6 so many times.  Might be a little more susceptible to run this season but better against the pass.  Held elite O mostly in check.

2015 Fantasy Football WR Rankings

Here are my WR rankings and, yes, I’m on the Odell Beckham Jr. train and fully believe he’ll be the #1 this season.  If he stays healthy, 2nd place might not be close to him, standard or PPR.

Again, the ADP was pulled from Fantasy Pros and they will change over time.  Here are some notes on a few.

UPDATE: I obviously liked Michael Floyd but the injury is quite a concern now.  Until something more definite comes along about the timeline, I’ll just say he’s a #4 for now and this could bump the exciting John Brown to around 33-37 range.

Why I’m much higher on…

A.J. Green: I’m not crazy higher on him but it should be worth noting he played a lot of games banged up last season and had guys around him injured as well so more attention went to him.  He could easily finish top 5 this season and be back to where everyone thought he was last year.

Martavis Bryant: A star in the making in my opinion.  Would be the #1 on a lot of other teams but he’s not Antonio Brown so his production will be hindered a bit by that.  However, you have to believe most defenses will be focused on Brown and Bell and Bryant will get plenty of open looks and there’s no question he has a QB that can find him.

Jarvis Landry: Love him in PPR but worth rostering in all leagues.  Just gets wide open and catches everything everywhere on the field.  Don’t think he’ll lose much and his numbers will progress even with all the new additions at WR in Miami.

Breshad Perriman: Two words: Marc Trestman.  Take a look back at the Bears’ box scores under Trestman and you’ll notice quite a few where only the starters/studs touched the ball.  Translate that to Baltimore with a lesser RB than Matt Forte, less talent at WR across from Perriman, and currently a rookie TE who’s not an elite pass catcher.  Could easily be the most productive rookie WR this season and might be a top 15 target.  Will be my sleeper of the year almost assuredly.

Marvin Jones: The injuries have mounted up and he’s scary because of them.  But the talent is undeniable and that is the reason the Bengals didn’t just hand the job to Sanu and move on.  For as late as you’ll be taking him on draft day, he could be a huge steal.  A WR deep on your bench that might be a top 25 producer.

Why I’m much lower on…

Emmanuel Sanders: I’ve gone back and forth a bit on him mostly due to the loss of Julius Thomas at TE.  He should still get plenty of targets because of that but I can’t help but think with the hiring of Kubiak at OC and the emergence of Anderson at RB, this team is going to be a bit more balanced this season.  That probably means Sanders’ numbers take a hit from last season.  And there is the much-hyped Cody Latimer breathing down his neck…

Sammy Watkins: Ugly QB situation and a new coach that likes to ground and pound spells bad news for this guy.  I also don’t think he showed a ton last season as well.  Didn’t look head and shoulders above the other rookie WR as he was touted to be.  This is a guy that will have to prove he can produce in his situation before I’m buying in.

Mike Wallace: I’m probably being unfair to him considering his numbers but this ranking has more to do with my belief in Charles Johnson’s potential.  I can see Johnson having a strong season that takes a chunk of production away from Wallace.  And what if Cordarrelle Patterson emerges in year three or Kyle Rudolph stay healthy and breaks out?  Just a few too many red flags for me for Wallace to be a #3 in a 10 team league.

Victor Cruz: The bad knee injury along with the best WR in the league taking most of the balls from you?  No, thanks.  Honestly, I wouldn’t be overly shocked if Rueben Randle finishes the season with equal or better numbers.  My guess is Cruz will only be starting out of desperation in fantasy by week 6.

Buffalo Bills Week 17 Fantasy Analysis

Week 17 – @ NE – W 17-9

QB: Orton didn’t have to do much and had below-average fantasy game.  Most of his numbers came on first drive.  Running game took over after that.

RB: Jackson an okay game but not great YPC.  Tough match up.  Dixon got the TD but not much else.  Spiller got a few touches but did little.

WR: Watkins a decent game but most came on one play.  Looks like he’d be a stud with a better QB.  Woods a good game getting an easy TD.  Great #2 but probably would struggle as a #1.

TE: Chandler 1 catch.  Bad game partly because of game flow.

OL: Wasn’t doing a ton for rushers.  Good pass protection.

Def: Was getting run over a little.  Mostly contained offense but played against mostly 2nd stringers.  Gave up decent games to RB and #1 WR.  Nothing else.

Buffalo Bills Week 16 Fantasy Analysis

Week 16 – @ Oakland – L 24-26

QB: Orton a good fantasy game but didn’t play great.  A few terrible decisions.  Accuracy was fairly good.

RB: Shutout.  Spiller returned and did little and didn’t look great.  Probably not fully healthy.  Jackson did a ton of damage as a receiver and led team.  Line gave no space on the ground.

WR: Watkins and Woods good games.  Watkins looks really powerful at times.  Woods looks good as well.  Could be an explosive combo with a better QB next season.

TE: Chandler another TD and good game.  Still TD-dependent but a better receiver than he will ever get credit for.

OL: Couldn’t do anything for the running game.  Pretty good pass protection, however.

Def: No pass rush against tough O-line.  Got run on for quite a bit and hit with a few big runs.  Was covering receivers well.  Gave up decent games to RB and WRs.  Held TE to nearly zero.

Buffalo Bills Week 15 Fantasy Analysis

Week 15 – vs GB – W 21-13

QB: Orton not great but didn’t have to do much as running game and defense did most of the work.  Pass rush got to him a little but he just wasn’t good.  If they were losing, he be benched.

RB: Jackson a good game and looked really good.  Ran very hard and looked good as a receiver.  Really separated himself in this one.

WR: None did much this game.  QB play hurt.  Watkins and Woods did make good catches but not much they can do in a game like this.

TE: Chandler did little.  Same story as WRs.

OL: Pretty solid game.  Wasn’t dominating but did enough to keep clock moving.

Def: Was getting run on for a ton.  Helped by some very key drops and Rodgers being just a little off.  Gave up good games to RB and #2 WR.   Very lucky #1 WR didn’t have huge game.

Buffalo Bills Week 14 Fantasy Analysis

Week 14 – @ Denver – L 17-24

QB: Orton a good fantasy game but some really bad plays mixed in.  Accuracy was decent but not great.

RB: Deficit limited runs.  Jackson a big PPR game but only decent yards.  Just not enough speed anymore.

WR: Watkins and Hogan big games and Watkins looked especially good making some nice catches.  Woods did little but came up a foot short of a TD.  Was covered well and drowned-out by other receiving options.

TE: Chandler a good game and would be a reliable option if he got this many looks every week.  Has the hands but not much else.

OL: Good blocking on the limited runs.  Pretty good against the pass rush but QB held the ball and took some hits.  Not the line’s fault.

Def: Held elite passing game in check.  Got hit with one big run but was solid, yardage-wise.  Gave up monster game to RB (3 TDs) and decent games to #2 and #3 WRs.  Held rest to little.

Buffalo Bills Week 13 Fantasy Analysis

Week 13 – vs Cleveland – W 26-10

QB: Orton played badly for the most part.  Receivers made him look better again.  Wouldn’t be shocked to see Manuel again soon.

RB: Jackson got the bulk of the work and had good game with receiving added.  Ran well but still lacks game-breaking speed.  A little TD-dependent for fantasy purposes.

WR: Watkins did little again with tough match up.  Woods a decent game and made some great plays again.  Really looking great right now.  Hogan a TD but little else.  Would have expected more throws to him.

TE: Chandler did little.  Gray looked very good and might be the more explosive player.  Wouldn’t be surprised to see him getting more touches now.

OL: Decent game all-around.  Wasn’t dominating but wasn’t bad.  Skill players need to be better.

Def: Stout against the run again.  Helped by horrible QB play.  Gave up good games to WRs.  Held everything else in check.