Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football Analysis – Week 7

Week 7 – @ Jacksonville (London) – L 31-34

QB: Manuel terrible early and late.  A few good throws in the middle but the bad outweighed the good by far.  Horribly inaccurate and hit the opposing team in the chest more than once.  Awful pocket presence.

RB: McCoy looked great but numbers weren’t big.  O line missed a lot of blocks that failed to get him to the second level.  Could have been a monster game otherwise.

WR: Watkins DNP.  Woods a big game making a great TD grab.  Played tough and would be a stud if he played this well every week.  Hogan another nice PPR game.  Not a bad option if a starter is hurt.

TE: Clay held in check and didn’t get many looks.  QB play hurt and should be fine once Taylor is healthy.

OL: Not great and QB play made them look even worse.  Missed a lot of blocks in run game.  Pass blocking was average, at best.

Def: Trampled by the run.  Was getting blown off the line at times and lost the battle in the trenches badly.  QB play helped make passing game look good.  Still couldn’t stop good WRs.  Gave up big games to RB and WRs.  Held TEs to nearly nothing.

Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football Analysis – Week 6

Week 6 – vs Cincy – L 21-34

QB: Taylor DNP.  Manuel looked fine and played pretty well considering opponent.  A decent option if match up is good while Taylor is out.  Still a run first O no matter what.

RB: McCoy a good game and looked great as the work horse.  Moving well again and could be a stud as long as they aren’t losing.  Great situation for him.

WR: Watkins a good game but isn’t completely healthy.  Only a good play when they are going to lose.  His talent just doesn’t matter as much as the O.  Woods an average game but just can’t seem to put it together consistently.

TE: Clay a nice PPR game and continues to look really good.  Catching everything thrown at him right now and should continue to be PPR play.

OL: Playing well in run game and will dominate some games.  Pass protection is shaky at times but not the worst.

Def: Played worse against the run but better against the pass in this one.  Pass rush was nullified.  Wasn’t dominating up front against the run.  Gave up good games to total RBs, #2 WR and TE.  Continuing to get killed by secondary options in passing game.

Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football Analysis – Week 5

Week 5 – @ Tennessee – W 14-13

QB: Lost TOP pretty bad and didn’t run many plays.  Taylor a good game but did a ton of damage running.  Got dinged but stayed in and toughed it out.  Just a dangerous player in both good and bad ways.

RB: McCoy and Williams DNP.  Herron got the most work but did little.  No catches and that is the only thing appealing about him for fantasy.  I would ignore for now.

WR: Watkins DNP.  Hogan a long TD and little else from him or anyone.  Didn’t really like the situation or the receiving corps coming into the season.  Hate it right now.  Wouldn’t touch.

TE: Clay one catch.  Could be okay but an ugly game for everyone here.

OL: Wasn’t great run blocking for backup runners.  Probably looked a little worse because of the injuries.  Pass protection wasn’t great either.  Had QB running a ton and still getting hit plenty.  Rough game.

Def: Solid against a struggling run game.  Scrambling QB did the bulk of the damage.  Shutdown passing game as well.  Pass rush was pretty solid.  Gave up no good games.

Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football Analysis – Week 4

Week 4 – vs NYG – L 10-24

QB: Taylor an okay game but looked pretty rattled at times, especially late.  Was scrambling quite a bit and wasn’t able to handle the constant pressure.

RB: McCoy DNP.  Williams a good game because of a receiving TD but wasn’t able to find much room.  Still looked good running it but there just weren’t any holes in this one.

WR: Watkins DNP.  Harvin and Woods did little.  Just weren’t able to make any plays versus the D.  Were covered well all game.

TE: Clay a good game despite having a TD nullified by a penalty.  Looks great right now but match ups have been favorable.  Worth using but not sure he’ll do it against tougher TE Ds.

OL: Pretty bad in this one.  Did nearly nothing for run game and had QB scrambling a lot.  A little concerning how bad they were.

Def: Not great in this one.  Wasn’t really stopping the run.  Mostly contained passing game but still hit for plenty.  Pass rush wasn’t effective.  Gave up good games to RB and #2 and #3 WR.

Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football Analysis – Week 2

Week 2 – vs NE – L 32-40

QB: Taylor a big fantasy game but definitely some problems in this one.  Some bad throws and got sacked a ton.  Does protect himself fairly well on runs but has a long way to go right now, development-wise.

RB: McCoy looked good while Williams snagged another TD.  McCoy will continue to be workhorse but Williams is really interesting.  Has the size and speed to be a stud runner.  Might be one of the best handcuffs in the league.

WR: Watkins and Woods good games while Harvin was average.  Plenty of talent here but it’s going to be difficult to predict who will be the stud every week.  Add in to that a young and inexperienced QB and this is a headache.

TE: Clay nabbed a TD and will produce occasionally like this.  I wouldn’t expect any consistency.

OL: Good run blocking against weak run D.  Terrible pass protection.  Part of that is on young QB but they certainly had trouble with the blitz.

Def: Solid against the run but annihilated by passing game.  This will probably be most games for them against teams that can handle blitz.  Gave up monster games to receiving RB, TE, and #1 WR.  Good game to #2 WR.

Buffalo Bills Fantasy Football Analysis – Week 1

Week 1 – vs Indy – W 27-14

QB: Taylor was pretty good against weak D but didn’t have to do much.  Ran well and mostly protected himself.  Have to see how he handles more pressure before I’d buy into it.

RB: McCoy looked okay but line let him down at times.  Numbers suffered a bit because of that and running late with a big lead when D knows it’s coming.  Williams looked strong and got the longish TD.  Looks like a pretty powerful runner that knows how to find holes.

WR: Watkins blanketed by Davis and got zero.  Harvin a good game getting a nice long TD where he beat D deep and made great grab.  Hard to trust but might be more consistent in this situation.

TE: Clay looked okay but not going to put up enough numbers to warrant starting most of the time.  A solid player but not good enough for fantasy most of the time.

OL: Pretty good against weak D.  Missed some guys occasionally but will work that out as the season goes on.  Solid all-around in this one.

Def: A ton of blitzing and looked good doing it.  Brought 6 so many times.  Might be a little more susceptible to run this season but better against the pass.  Held elite O mostly in check.

Off-season Fantasy Football Likes and Dislikes – AFC East

After the long break, it’s time to get back at it and take a look at some of the off-season transactions of every team.  I’ll start with the division housing the current Super Bowl champs.  Three pretty simple sections for each: what I think the team needed, what off-season moves I liked, and what moves I disliked.  Let’s get into it!


 

Buffalo Bills

What they needed: The obvious needs for the Bills were QB and on the offensive line.  I’m in a very tiny minority that still believes E.J. Manuel might develop into a fairly good QB one day but we’ll have to wait and see if he gets that chance again.  The O-line got better as the season progressed but just wasn’t good enough to allow this offense to be very good.  With the talent they have at RB, O-line should have been a big priority to enable this offense to just run it down the throat of every team they play.

Moves I liked: The big splash (outside of the coaching change) for the Bills was the trade for LeSean McCoy and I loved the move.  Spiller has plenty of talent but hasn’t shown the ability to stay on the field like McCoy.  This will be a grind-it-out offense like the Jets were under Rex Ryan and McCoy will be a very good workhorse.  And, just as important, he’ll do it behind a potentially improved O-line with the additions of Incognito and 3rd rounder Miller.  Percy Harvin will also be an interesting player to watch.  The talent is still there but the question will be how he gets used.  He’s a player that won’t fit every system and it’s tough to say how he’ll fit in for Buffalo.  Charles Clay is an upgrade at TE over Chandler and might be a nice PPR surprise this season.

Moves I disliked: Not a lot to dislike but I do think the expectations for Sammy Watkins took a hit with the signing of Rex Ryan as head coach.  While he could still put up good numbers, you probably have to drop a couple hundred yards and maybe a couple TDs from what you may have expected before.  The offense won’t be the Broncos so, if you are targeting Watkins, you better hope for consistency because the big boom games probably won’t be there too often.  And if it was any other head coach than Ryan, I would have hated the loss of Jim Schwartz as the DC.  I’ll call this a push for now.


 

Miami Dolphins

What they needed: Miami was pretty solid just about everywhere last season and didn’t have the glaring holes most other teams around the league had.  Their run D weakened a bit later on in the season but was good most of the way.  Their biggest need might simply have been for Ryan Tannehill to progress as a QB.  He holds the ball a bit too long at times and takes hits that veterans don’t tend to take.  He stayed healthy last season but every QB is a hit away from fantasy disappointment and the risk is certainly higher with Tannehill until he learns to safely ditch the ball at the right times.

Moves I liked: The signing of Suh and using a 2nd round pick on DT Phillips pretty much eliminates the worry of the run D weakening.  Tannehill got some nice upgrades as far as his weapons go with the additions of Jennings, Stills, and TE Cameron and the drafting of Parker.  The Dolphins have a ton of mouths to feed and I personally like a lot of these guys (Miller and Landry may end up as sleepers for me).  I think I like the addition of Cameron the most.  If he stays on the field, he’ll be a top 5 TE.  He’s a great play-maker that goes after the ball in traffic but he pays for his aggression.  This offense should be pretty explosive and Cameron might be a phenomenal beneficiary of redzone targets.  If you are going to wait a little on TE, you’ll get a ton of fantasy potential with Cameron.

Moves I disliked:  Not much to dislike here for me.  If I have to pick something, I’ll say I would have looked at another position on the 2nd round pick.  It’s not a knock on Phillips in any way.  But I would have liked to have seen them either snatch another O-lineman or grab some more talent at LB for more depth.  Then again, having more depth at D-line doesn’t hurt, especially when you lose a player for the season because of substance abuse.


 

New England Patriots

What they needed:  Well, they aren’t the champs because they have big holes everywhere.  That said, the run D was especially bad at times last season and the leads the offense got hid that on the overall numbers.  On top of that, the O-line was scary bad at the beginning of the season but did put it together later.  I was terrified of the fantasy players on this team because of how awful the line looked in game 1 against Miami.  The NE RBs are…on the team.  I’m done getting even remotely excited about anyone in this backfield.

Moves I liked: They spent their first four picks on D with 3 of them on D-linemen.  They needed to improve against the run and hopefully they’ve addressed that.  Remember, this is important for fantasy purposes in terms of time of possession.  Just think of the ugly Thursday night win against the Jets last season where they had the ball less than 20 minutes.  Still some good fantasy games in that one but that’s going to be rather fluky if they allow other teams to play keep-away.

Moves I disliked: They went from not having a lot of great play-makers on offense to seemingly having even fewer.  We all know what Gronk is going to do but trusting anyone else in this offense as a starter right now might be iffy.  I did like Lafell as the season progressed last year and think he could be a valuable pick on draft day this season.  I just don’t think they acquired another game-changing player and Cadet is certainly not it.


 

New York Jets

What they needed: It baffles me when I hear analysts talk about how much they like Geno Smith.  Let’s be clear: he’s been a terrible QB up to this point in his career and I have a hard time believing that changes.  Maybe he’ll make a dramatic turnaround this season but I’d put my money on Fitzpatrick getting some starts by week 6 or 7.  They have a pretty strong team just about everywhere else but this team will struggle as long as Smith is under center.

Moves I liked: I expect Fitz to be playing at some point and a good D got better.  Marshall and Decker at WR will be interesting but their numbers might be hurt by QB play.  I think Ridley might be the most intriguing move here.  Ivory has an injury history and Ridley showed great talent at times in New England but the fumbles kept him from being the main guy.  If Ridley becomes the starter at some point, he could be a player that wins some games late for fantasy players.  He’ll be worth a stash in deep leagues and should be a valuable one at that.

Moves I disliked: They did grab Petty in the 4th round but I think the need at QB was so obvious they should have went after someone sooner.  There wasn’t much else to dislike about the Jets off-season but they are still a QB away from being a great team and the position is such a dire need here it drags the rest of the fantasy players down badly.  If you go into the fantasy season starting a Jet at a skill position, I hope you are absolutely loaded everywhere else.

Buffalo Bills Week 17 Fantasy Analysis

Week 17 – @ NE – W 17-9

QB: Orton didn’t have to do much and had below-average fantasy game.  Most of his numbers came on first drive.  Running game took over after that.

RB: Jackson an okay game but not great YPC.  Tough match up.  Dixon got the TD but not much else.  Spiller got a few touches but did little.

WR: Watkins a decent game but most came on one play.  Looks like he’d be a stud with a better QB.  Woods a good game getting an easy TD.  Great #2 but probably would struggle as a #1.

TE: Chandler 1 catch.  Bad game partly because of game flow.

OL: Wasn’t doing a ton for rushers.  Good pass protection.

Def: Was getting run over a little.  Mostly contained offense but played against mostly 2nd stringers.  Gave up decent games to RB and #1 WR.  Nothing else.

Buffalo Bills Week 16 Fantasy Analysis

Week 16 – @ Oakland – L 24-26

QB: Orton a good fantasy game but didn’t play great.  A few terrible decisions.  Accuracy was fairly good.

RB: Shutout.  Spiller returned and did little and didn’t look great.  Probably not fully healthy.  Jackson did a ton of damage as a receiver and led team.  Line gave no space on the ground.

WR: Watkins and Woods good games.  Watkins looks really powerful at times.  Woods looks good as well.  Could be an explosive combo with a better QB next season.

TE: Chandler another TD and good game.  Still TD-dependent but a better receiver than he will ever get credit for.

OL: Couldn’t do anything for the running game.  Pretty good pass protection, however.

Def: No pass rush against tough O-line.  Got run on for quite a bit and hit with a few big runs.  Was covering receivers well.  Gave up decent games to RB and WRs.  Held TE to nearly zero.

Buffalo Bills Week 15 Fantasy Analysis

Week 15 – vs GB – W 21-13

QB: Orton not great but didn’t have to do much as running game and defense did most of the work.  Pass rush got to him a little but he just wasn’t good.  If they were losing, he be benched.

RB: Jackson a good game and looked really good.  Ran very hard and looked good as a receiver.  Really separated himself in this one.

WR: None did much this game.  QB play hurt.  Watkins and Woods did make good catches but not much they can do in a game like this.

TE: Chandler did little.  Same story as WRs.

OL: Pretty solid game.  Wasn’t dominating but did enough to keep clock moving.

Def: Was getting run on for a ton.  Helped by some very key drops and Rodgers being just a little off.  Gave up good games to RB and #2 WR.   Very lucky #1 WR didn’t have huge game.