Half-Season Review of My 2015 Fantasy Football Busts

Time to take a look back at my busts for this season. Like last season, nearly nailed all of these. I believe I’ll look better on the RBs by the end of the season for reasons I’ll point out.

QB

Peyton Manning – Denver Broncos – ADP: 3 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 29th – Grade: A+++

I actually think his arm has looked a lot better than people have been suggesting but I never imagined the O line would be as terrible as it has been. The crazy thing to think about now with Manning is, if he returns for another season, does he even get drafted in 10 team leagues? Very possible he’ll still be on the waiver wire after draft day in a lot of leagues next season.

Matthew Stafford – Detroit Lions – ADP: 9 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 21st – Grade: A+++

Almost criminally overrated at this point and is showing it. His line is bad but he’s just an average NFL QB, at best. I’ve never owned him and never will.

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RB

DeMarco Murray – Philadelphia Eagles – ADP: 8 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 12th – Grade: C

If not for so many injuries to RBs, he’d barely be top 20 right now. The Eagles do look like they are turning things around but it’s hard to imagine Murray finishes top 10 unless more injuries gift him the spot. Tougher sledding behind an O line that couldn’t block nearly the entire first half of the season.

Frank Gore – Indianapolis Colts – ADP: 14 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 10th – Grade: C

Hasn’t had his bye and, if you take away the last game, he drops out of the top 20. Still looks fantastic when he runs but his line is awful. I thought he could put up numbers but not behind that blocking. Impressed with him to this point but still wouldn’t trust him on my team.

Melvin Gordon – San Diego Chargers – ADP: 16 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 46th – Grade: A+++

Another one you can blame a bit on the line but his ball security problems aren’t helping either. Really looked great at the start as a runner but only so much he can do.

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WR

Andre Johnson – Indianapolis Colts – ADP: 16 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 48th – Grade: A+++

As I said at the outset, I love his talent but too many mouths and the Colts offense was atrocious at the start. Playing better now but pretty much no way he gets near the top 20 this season. Will go undrafted in smaller leagues next season, for sure.

Sammy Watkins – Buffalo Bills – ADP: 20 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 44th – Grade: A+++

Injuries have hurt but, again, be wary of WRs on Rex Ryan-coached teams. It’s just not happening regardless of how talented Watkins is. Buyer beware until he’s playing under another staff.

Victor Cruz – New York Giants – ADP: 33 – Current Season Scoring at Position: No Rank

Hasn’t stepped on the field and I’m certainly surprised by that. Still, it was obvious he wasn’t going to be 100% early and it looks like he won’t be late in the season either. As I said, better upside guys behind him and not worth the pick he cost.

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TE

Julius Thomas – Jacksonville Jaguars – ADP: 6 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 38th – Grade: A++

Even after he returned from the suspension, he’s been a dud. One good game and a bunch of stinkers. Not an elite player at his position and in a terrible situation. I wouldn’t expect that to change next season if he remains a Jag.

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Defense

Philadelphia Eagles – ADP: 5 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 5th – Grade: F

Definitely the one I got dead-wrong. I was right about them not repeating on the TDs. Wrong about the talent level. They’ve been a ball-hawking unit and it looks like they are getting better as the season progresses. Good unit and deserving of being called one of the best fantasy options.

Last Minute Fantasy Football Pickups of Week 10 – Bucs D and Funchess

No time for explainers this week. As always, I’ll be using the ownership percentages from CBS Sports since they are typically the highest and these guys will be even easier to find on waivers on other sites.

20%-50% Owned

Pickup of the Week – Tamp Bay Buccaneers Defense

Honorable Mentions

QB Kirk Cousins

RB Brandon Bolden

TE Crockett Gillmore

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Owned 20% or less

Pickup of the Week – Devin Funchess

Honorable Mentions

QB Landry Jones

RB Chris Thompson – PPR

WR Marquess Wilson

Half-Season Review of My 2015 Fantasy Football Sleepers

Time to look back on my sleepers. Always fun to take a look at them at the half-way point. Pretty much all total hits or complete misses. Roughly about half and half if the group of RBs are considered.

QB

Sam Bradford – Philadelphia Eagles – ADP: 16 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 27th – Grade: F—

Bigger problems on that O line than most people realized. I thought they wouldn’t be great but they’ve been ridiculously bad to this point. Things are starting to turn around a bit for the offense but pretty much no way Bradford cracks the top 10 at this point. Very disappointing.

Andy Dalton – Cincinnati Bengals – ADP: 24 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 6th – Grade: A+++

Only two points out of 3rd place on the season so easy to say I got this one correct, so far. As I stated in the preseason, he’ll be a stud if his targets stay healthy. And to this point, Green, Eifert and Jones have stayed on the field. Should continue to be great as long as that continues.

 

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RB

All NFC South Starters – Mark Ingram (ADP: 12), Jonathan Stewart (19), Doug Martin (32), Devonta Freeman (40) – Current Season Scoring at Position: Ingram 3rd, Stewart 24th, Martin 8th, Freeman 1st – Grade: A+++

Stewart is the only disappointment so far in this group. And I want to pat myself on the back for pushing Freeman over Coleman from day 1. Very doubtful they finish this well but certainly nailed this group.

Joseph Randle – Dallas Cowboys – ADP: 21 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 32nd – Grade: F

Looked great at times but the off-the-field stuff obviously killed him. Really a shame that he’s wasting his talent by not getting his head right. No way we see him on an NFL field again this season. Too bad.

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WR

Brandin Cooks – New Orleans Saints – ADP: 13 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 20th – Grade: D

Starting to turn things around after the Saints had the slow start. Still think he’s going to finish very strong and potentially top 10. Don’t count him out yet.

Breshad Perriman – Baltimore Ravens – ADP: 46 – Current Season Scoring at Position: Has not played

With the injury to Smith, the opportunity was amazing for him to put up huge numbers. Unfortunately, the preseason injury was worse than everyone knew. Looks like we’ll barely get to see him this season. Really hope we get a look at him to see what he might do next season. The opportunity to be a stud will be there again considering the Ravens’ situation.

Marvin Jones – Cincinnati Bengals – ADP: 68 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 34th – Grade: A

I thought he might get into the top 30 and still has a chance. Basically, when the Bengals are playing a team with an elite corner that’s going to be on Green, play Jones. Otherwise, expect paltry numbers. Worth owning for sure.

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TE

Jordan Cameron – Miami Dolphins – ADP: 8 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 25th – Grade: F—

Probably the player on this list I’m most disappointed in. The Miami O has been atrocious most of the season and Cameron has suffered terribly. Only twice in 8 games have they managed to score over 20 points. Just awful. Had high hopes for most of the offense and they have crushed those hopes with their mediocrity…

Austin Seferian-Jenkins – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ADP: 24 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 29th – No Grade for Injury

Still top 30 despite basically playing one game. Everyone knows about the week 1 explosion and safe to say he would probably be top 10 right now if he was healthy the whole way. Has massive potential. Just needs to stop being bitten by the injury bug.

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Defense

Denver Broncos – ADP: 11 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 1st – Grade: A++++

Was baffled by the ADP at the time and still can’t understand it. This one was painfully obvious to me so no surprise they are at the top and, considering their huge lead over 2nd right now, might stay there all season. Wade Phillips knows how to coach D, people. Hate him all you want as a head coach but he’s a Hall-of-Fame level coordinator.

Last Minute Fantasy Football Pickups for Week 9 – Smith and Wilson

No TEs this week although I kind of like both Tamme and Tye as deep options.  No one I’m super excited about other than possibly Thompson in PPR play.  That match up looks pretty lush for him.  As always, I’ll be using the ownership percentages from CBS Sports since they are typically the highest and these guys will be even easier to find on waivers on other sites.

20%-50% Owned

Pickup of the Week – WR Torrey Smith – San Francisco 49ers – Owned: 45%

I’m choosing him under the assumption Trufant will be locked on Boldin in this one.  It’s going to be a gamble with the QB change but, if things play out as I expect, Smith might find himself with one of his best games of the season.  It might not even be crazy to say he gets in the end zone twice this week on some long bombs.  Risky, yes, but the payoff might be fantastic.  (Projection: 6-110-1)

Honorable Mentions

QB Markus Mariota – Tennessee Titans – Owned: 38% – Normally I wouldn’t recommend someone playing against a D that just got blasted last week but Mariota might be a good fit against the Saints.  If the D pins their ears back trying for the kill, it could open up the run for him.  Should be a safe play.  (225-2,55-1)

RB Kendall Gaskins – San Francisco 49ers – Owned: 33% – Is expected to get the goal line work but might get more than that since his competition just joined the team this week.  Don’t love him but might sneak into the top 24 at RB.  (55-1)

New York Giants Defense – Owned: 45% – Don’t love them against a team coming off their bye but they have still been playing too good for fantasy this season.  And I’m assuming their going to play with a big chip on their shoulders this week after the blasting by the Saints last week.  (11 fantasy points)

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Owned 20% or less

Pickup of the Week – WR Marquess Wilson – Chicago Bears – Owned: 10%

Back to the starting lineup and should be a strong play again.  The match up isn’t great but should still get plenty of looks with Forte out against the Chargers.  Looking like this could be a bit of a shootout and Wilson will benefit.  Start away!  (5-90-1)

Honorable Mentions

QB Kirk Cousins – Washington NFL Franchise – Owned: 16% – Should be forced to throw against the Patriots and has all of his targets healthy for the first time in a while.  Will probably turn it over but the offense should still be fine for fantasy. (310-3)

RB Chris Thompson – Washington NFL Franchise – Owned: 10% – Should also benefit from the likely Patriots blowout.  Great PPR play this week as he’s healthy again.  (80 total yards, 6 catches-1)

WR Dorial Green-Beckham – Tennessee Titans – Owned: 17% – If he’s going to be worth playing this season, now might be the time.  Wright is out and the match up is great against the Saints.  If he was worth the draft pick, this is his week to show it.  (6-90-1)

Last Minute Fantasy Football Pickups of Week 8 – Hoyer and Rivera

Posting early because of the Wilson pick in the London game.

After the feast and famine last week, I think there will be some more guys in between this week.  Going with more PPR plays than usual but they have match ups that are too good to pass on.  As always, I’ll be using the ownership percentages from CBS Sports since they are typically the highest and these guys will be even easier to find on waivers on other sites.

20%-50% Owned

Pickup of the Week – QB Brian Hoyer – Houston Texans – Owned: 31%

Over 1100 yards and 10 TDs in his last four games combined makes him a quietly hot commodity.  This week he’s at home against a Titans D that has played much better this season than in 2014 but still are far from an elite unit.  With Foster done, the team will have to ride Hoyer’s arm more than they want so he becomes a nice play for a variety of reasons.  I think he continues his hot streak as he keeps feeding one of the best wide receivers in the league.  (Projection: 250-3)

Honorable Mentions

WR Stevie Johnson – San Diego Chargers – Owned: 46% – A dream match up against a Ravens team that is incredibly generous to WRs.  Definitely worth the risk in PPR. (6-85-1)

WR Eddie Royal – Chicago Bears – Owned: 28% – Another PPR play as the Bears come off their bye against the Vikings.  Should get a good amount of looks and might get a ton if the Vikes can shut down the run early.  (8-95)

TE Crockett Gillmore – Baltimore Ravens – Owned: 26% – Played better in his second week back from injury and should be a focal point in the passing game again.  Could be a shootout in Baltimore this week and Gillmore could be great.  (6-80-1)

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Owned 20% or less

Pickup of the Week – TE Mychael Rivera – Oakland Raiders – Owned: 9%

A massive gamble to say the least but very interesting to me.  The Jets are rather tough against WRs which could mean Carr has to look Rivera’s way a few more times than usual this week.  The other match up similar to this the Raiders have had was Denver where Rivera record his best game this season, a still fantasy-irrelevant 3 catches for 33 yards.  I think he improves on that this week as he should be able to do a little less blocking in this one and nabs his first TD of the season.  (5-55-1)

Honorable Mentions

RB Dexter McCluster – Tennessee Titans – Owned: 11% – Another PPR play as he has quietly played pretty well this season in the mess that is the Titans backfield.  Should put up another nice game against the underachieving Texans D.  (7 catches-65 total yards)

WR Albert Wilson – Kansas City Chiefs – Owned: 5% – Started liking this guy down the stretch last season and he’s getting more involved with the absence of Charles.  Worth the risk against a struggling Lions’ D.  (4-85-1)

Chicago Bears Defense – Owned: 9% – After the first two weeks against elite offenses, they had been playing better until they surrendered 37 points at Detroit before their bye.  They been stewing on that for two weeks now and I have to assume they come out with a fire this week against the Vikings.   (11 fantasy points)

My Draft Kings NFL Lineups for Week 8

Always check back at 12:15 p.m. on Sunday for any last minute changes.

Safe Lineups (50/50s)

Pos	Player	Opp	Salary
QB	Andy Dalton	Cin@Pit	$6,000
RB	Matt Forte	Min@Chi	$7,300
RB	Mark Ingram	NYG@NO	$6,400
WR	Brandin Cooks	NYG@NO	$5,400
WR	Stefon Diggs	Min@Chi	$4,800
WR	A.J. Green	Cin@Pit	$7,600
TE	M. Bennett	Min@Chi	$4,900
FLEX	Duke Johnson Jr.	Ari@Cle	$4,200
DST	Falcons	TB@Atl	$3,400

Don’t love the road game but Dalton and Green should have great games against the Steelers’ D and its struggles against the pass.  Forte contiues to quietly be one of the best backs in the league and have to love him after the bye and at home.  Ingram and Cooks should also flourish at homes.  The Giants D has been better than most expected but the Saints seem to be getting things right.

Diggs has been rolling and he should have a good day against the terrible Bears’ D.  He’s showing more and more talent every week and worth starting in all leagues at this point.  Bennett is scary since he tends to get worse later in the season but the match up is worth the risk.  Johnson should get plenty of time as the passing downs back in what I expect will be a blowout by the Cardinals.  And the Falcons are at home against a rookie QB in a game they should win handily.  I’ll take my chances they get a pick-6 here.

Swing for the Fences Lineup

Pos	Player	Opp	Salary
QB	Cam Newton	Ind@Car	$6,800
RB	Justin Forsett	SD@Bal	$6,100
RB	Todd Gurley	SF@StL	$6,300
WR	John Brown Q	Ari@Cle	$5,800
WR	Calvin Johnson P	Det@KC	$7,900
WR	Mike Wallace	Min@Chi	$4,200
TE	Greg Olsen	Ind@Car	$6,500
FLEX	Stevie Johnson	SD@Bal	$3,200
DST	Rams	SF@StL	$3,200

Newton and Olsen should continue their good seasons at home against an Indy D that I don’t think is particularly good against anything.  Forsett and Gurley both get home games against struggling teams that are making the long trek east.  Brown should benefit from being the guy not covered by Haden in Cleveland and have a huge PPR game.

Calvin Johnson has been playing great lately and should go off against a terrible KC passing D.  Wallace has played well and might have a huge game if too much attention goes Diggs’ way.  Stevie Johnson is a quality cheap play against a Baltimore team that is awful against WRs.  And the Rams get the struggling 49ers offense who look as bad as any in the league at the moment.

Grading My Week 7 Last Minute Fantasy Football Pickups

Talk about a feast-or-famine week.  Either nailed it or picked a stinker.  Have to console myself by saying my Pickups of the Week have been pretty great most of the season to this point.  At least that’s going well.  Just hose other picks…  As always, I’ll be using the standard projections and scoring found at espn.com for these ratings.  Let’s see how I did!

20-50% owned tier

Pickup of the Week – WR Danny Amendola – New England Patriots – Projected 62nd at WR – Finished 10th – Grade: A+++

Another big game and looked great.  Looks like he’ll lose some production to Lafell now as the Pats seem to want to feed Lafell no matter what.  Amendola deserves more but I’m not sure he’ll get it.  Too bad.  Still might be a sneaky play when the match up is right like this one was.

Honorable Mentions

QB Jameis Winston – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Projected 26th at QB – Finished 10th – Grade: A+

Looking better every week and is definitely a nice match up play.  If he gets on track with Evans and gets his other receivers healthy, he’ll have some monster games on occasion the rest of season.

TE Dwayne Allen – Indianapolis Colts – Projected 29th at TE – Finished 33rd – Grade: F

They keep throwing the ball to Fleener and I have no idea why.  Allen is suffering because of that and it’s a shame.  Should be far better than this.

New York Giants Defense – Projected 25th at D – Finished 3rd – Grade: A+++

Quietly a very good fantasy D and I’m patting myself on the back for calling this one in my preseason rankings.  Projected them top 10 and they are sitting tied for 10th in ESPN scoring at this moment.

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Owned 20% or Less

Pickup of the Week – QB Kirk Cousins – Washington NFL Franchise – Projected 23rd at QB – Finished 2nd – Grade: A+++

Good match up and he abused the D getting his star TE back healthy.  Wouldn’t trust him much since I’m not a big believer in his talent.  But good match ups are going to work even for players like him.

Honorable Mentions

RB Branden Oliver – San Diego Chargers – Projected 26th at RB – Finished 29th – Grade: F

Disappointed as the Chargers got blown out early by the Raiders.  Certainly didn’t expect that so bad call here.  Chargers are seemingly the most erratic team in fantasy this season.  Would hate owning anyone on that team outside of Rivers right now.

WR Brian Quick – St. Louis Rams – Projected 73rd at WR – Finished with Zero – Grade: F—

They tried going deep to him…once.  And a penalty was called.  Still think he’s worth keeping an eye on but this was a huge disappointment to me.  Really thought he’d have a good one after the bye.

Oakland Raiders Defense – Projected 28th at D – Finished 22nd – Grade: D

Would have been a good game had they not given up 23 fourth quarter points.  Was smiling about this pick for the first 45 minutes of that game…

Tennessee Titans Fantasy Football Analysis – Week 7

Week 7 – vs Atlanta – L 7-10

QB: Mettenberger was terrible and is certainly no threat to Mariota.  Tough match up but he still made some bad decisions and throws.  Nothing to consider unless match up was amazing.

RB: Andrews an okay game and McCluster a good PPR game.  Nothing overly exciting about Andrews.  Not incredibly fast or powerful.  Reminds me of Zac Stacy in a worse situation.

WR: Wright a good game nabbing a TD but not a ton else.  Covered well and just couldn’t make many plays.  Hunter had one of the worst drops of the season.  Not seeing a #2 WR right now.

TE: Walker an average game and still a good PPR option.  Needs others to take some pressure off.  Can’t make too many plays when he’s blanketed so closely.

OL: Decent game overall.  Kept QB up but wasn’t great.  Gave space for runners on limited carries.  Team probably should have run a lot more in this one.

Def: Trampled by sizzling run game.  Played well against the pass.  No pass rush.  Helped by off game by QB and WRs.  Gave up good game to RB and #1 WR.

Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Football Analysis – Week 7

Week 7 – @ Tennessee – W 10-7

QB: Did not play well on top of receivers doing him no favors.  Bad game against emerging D that wasn’t all his fault.  Wouldn’t be overly worries but this team is still erratic on the road.  Should always be a little cautious.

RB: Freeman awesome again and looks great.  Is patient and exploding through holes.  No reason to stop riding him.  Team should keep feeding him like they are.

WR: Jones a big game but took a ton of targets to do it.  Definitely not 100% right now and it’s obvious.  Would be cautious with him until he starts making plays again.

TE: Tamme did little and will continue to be nothing more than a gamble.

OL: Continues to play well but not dominating anyone.  Doing just enough to get by and will probably have ugly games on the road against elite defensive fronts.

Def: Helped by bad O.  Wasn’t great against struggling run game.  Coverage was decent but nothing special.  Pass rush did little as well.  Gave up good PPR games to RB, #1 WR, and TE.

Detroit Lions Fantasy Football Analysis – Week 7

Week 7 – vs Minnesota – L 19-28

QB: Stafford killed by protection as pass rush was crushing him all game long.  Threw it pretty well considering the circumstances.  Decent game as receivers made some plays for him.

RB: Abdullah okay numbers but not enough touches to matter much for fantasy.  Line hurts and it doesn’t appear he would be able to handle full load.  Will be boom-or-bust rest of season.

WR: Johnson a big game and looked great.  Making great plays and seems to be 100% healthy right now.  Tate did little and just didn’t get great throws in this one.  Need to get him the ball more.

TE: Ebron a good game and was very good here.  Has the ability to make huge plays and did it in this one.  Could be a monster in the right match up.

OL: Awful.  Was decent on limited runs but atrocious in protection.  Looked like they were stuck in the mud and playing against track stars on some plays.

Def: Decent pass rush.  Except for one big play, decent game against the run.  Got wore down.  Coverage was decent but got burned a few times.  Gave up good games to RB and #2 WR.