Half-Season Review of My 2015 Fantasy Football Sleepers

Time to look back on my sleepers. Always fun to take a look at them at the half-way point. Pretty much all total hits or complete misses. Roughly about half and half if the group of RBs are considered.

QB

Sam Bradford – Philadelphia Eagles – ADP: 16 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 27th – Grade: F—

Bigger problems on that O line than most people realized. I thought they wouldn’t be great but they’ve been ridiculously bad to this point. Things are starting to turn around a bit for the offense but pretty much no way Bradford cracks the top 10 at this point. Very disappointing.

Andy Dalton – Cincinnati Bengals – ADP: 24 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 6th – Grade: A+++

Only two points out of 3rd place on the season so easy to say I got this one correct, so far. As I stated in the preseason, he’ll be a stud if his targets stay healthy. And to this point, Green, Eifert and Jones have stayed on the field. Should continue to be great as long as that continues.

 

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RB

All NFC South Starters – Mark Ingram (ADP: 12), Jonathan Stewart (19), Doug Martin (32), Devonta Freeman (40) – Current Season Scoring at Position: Ingram 3rd, Stewart 24th, Martin 8th, Freeman 1st – Grade: A+++

Stewart is the only disappointment so far in this group. And I want to pat myself on the back for pushing Freeman over Coleman from day 1. Very doubtful they finish this well but certainly nailed this group.

Joseph Randle – Dallas Cowboys – ADP: 21 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 32nd – Grade: F

Looked great at times but the off-the-field stuff obviously killed him. Really a shame that he’s wasting his talent by not getting his head right. No way we see him on an NFL field again this season. Too bad.

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WR

Brandin Cooks – New Orleans Saints – ADP: 13 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 20th – Grade: D

Starting to turn things around after the Saints had the slow start. Still think he’s going to finish very strong and potentially top 10. Don’t count him out yet.

Breshad Perriman – Baltimore Ravens – ADP: 46 – Current Season Scoring at Position: Has not played

With the injury to Smith, the opportunity was amazing for him to put up huge numbers. Unfortunately, the preseason injury was worse than everyone knew. Looks like we’ll barely get to see him this season. Really hope we get a look at him to see what he might do next season. The opportunity to be a stud will be there again considering the Ravens’ situation.

Marvin Jones – Cincinnati Bengals – ADP: 68 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 34th – Grade: A

I thought he might get into the top 30 and still has a chance. Basically, when the Bengals are playing a team with an elite corner that’s going to be on Green, play Jones. Otherwise, expect paltry numbers. Worth owning for sure.

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TE

Jordan Cameron – Miami Dolphins – ADP: 8 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 25th – Grade: F—

Probably the player on this list I’m most disappointed in. The Miami O has been atrocious most of the season and Cameron has suffered terribly. Only twice in 8 games have they managed to score over 20 points. Just awful. Had high hopes for most of the offense and they have crushed those hopes with their mediocrity…

Austin Seferian-Jenkins – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ADP: 24 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 29th – No Grade for Injury

Still top 30 despite basically playing one game. Everyone knows about the week 1 explosion and safe to say he would probably be top 10 right now if he was healthy the whole way. Has massive potential. Just needs to stop being bitten by the injury bug.

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Defense

Denver Broncos – ADP: 11 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 1st – Grade: A++++

Was baffled by the ADP at the time and still can’t understand it. This one was painfully obvious to me so no surprise they are at the top and, considering their huge lead over 2nd right now, might stay there all season. Wade Phillips knows how to coach D, people. Hate him all you want as a head coach but he’s a Hall-of-Fame level coordinator.

Denver Broncos Fantasy Football Analysis – Week 6

Week 6 – @ Cleveland – W 26-23

QB: Manning looked like a below-average QB in this one.  Made bad decisions on top of terrible throws.  Just awful in this one.  Have to be scared about him.

RB: Hillman and Anderson split a lot of touches and this is the first game where Hillman clearly looked like the better player.  They will still split touches but Hillman may pull away if this continues.

WR: Thomas and Sanders big games with Thomas getting the volume and Sanders the big play.  Thomas had a few bad drops in this one despite the good game.  O just isn’t clicking on all cylinders right now.

TE: Daniels did little and no reason to believe in him.  Would ignore for now.

OL: Great run blocking game and strong pass protection against weaker D.  Still not buying into them yet but game was a good sign.  They weren’t the problem in this one.

Def: Continues to be elite.  Solid against the run but not elite there.  Awesome against the pass.  Seems like receivers had to make great plays just to get routine balls.  Gave up good games to #1 WR and TE.

Denver Broncos Fantasy Football Analysis – Week 5

Week 5 – @ Oakland – W 16-10

QB: Manning a bad game and looked like a below average QB in this one.  A few inexplicable throws.  Took a few more hits than normal.  Just a terrible game by his standards.

RB: Shutdown again by bad D.  Blocking is too awful to use any RB here.  Anderson and Hillman look like the same player so no difference in talent.  The RB doesn’t matter.  No one could put up numbers behind this blocking.

WR: Sanders a good game and looks like a #1 right now with the plays he is making.  Thomas an average game and just couldn’t break anything big.  Was contained well by the D.

TE: Daniels got zero but was targeted in the end zone.  Impossible to trust if he couldn’t do anything with this match up.

OL: Killing this team, especially the run game.  Can’t get a runner past the LOS most of the time, regardless of the D.  Got QB hit more than normal in this one.  Makes this team barely better than average.

Def: Continues to look fantastic.  Lights out against the run.  Covered star WRs well.  Pass rush was solid.  One of the best right now.  Gave up good game to receiving RB.

Denver Broncos Fantasy Football Analysis – Week 2

Week 2 – @ KC – W 31-24

QB: Manning shaky early due to blocking but turned it on later.  Should be fine and doesn’t look as bad as some people are suggesting.

RB: Anderson and Hillman about the same as blocking was pretty terrible.  Should be good as season progresses and still believe Anderson is the better back.

WR: Thomas and Sanders both had huge games.  Thomas continues to look like the second or third most talented WR in the league.  Sanders looked as good as ever in this one.  These guys aren’t going to lose touches.

TE: Green a TD but not much else.  Surprisingly, hard to trust this spot so far.

OL: Had some serious problems early but got better as game went on.  Have to watch them more as this is becoming a little concerning, especially for running game.

Def: One of the best in the league despite getting run on for a bit in this one.  So aggressive and fast on the blitz.  Most teams won’t be able to run like this.  Gave up Huge game to RB and nothing else.

Denver Broncos Fantasy Football Analysis – Week 1

Week 1 – vs Baltimore – W 19-13

QB: Manning had more trouble with the pressure than usual.  Hopefully, it was just rust.  Throws weren’t all that bad but certainly a little more off than normal for him.  I’d still trust him.

RB: Anderson and Hillman shut down by good D.  Probably a symptom of them playing against Kubiak’s team from last season.  Not overly worried at this point.

WR: Thomas and Sanders decent but not great.  Both had moments and both should be very good going forward.

TE: Daniels disappointing in this one.  Really expected more and not sure I would be too sure of him just yet.  Need to see something from him first.

OL: Not great at all.  Wasn’t handling pass rush well and couldn’t open holes for ground game.  Hopefully, will be stronger against weaker teams but definitely a concern worth watching.

Def: O dominating TOP helped keep numbers against very low.   Pass rush is particularly good.  Gave up no good games.  Looks like a potential lock-down type of D judging from this game.

2015 Fantasy Football Defense Rankings

Here are the defensive ranks.  Again, the ADP was pulled from Fantasy Pros and they will change over time.  Here are some notes on a few.  And always keep in mind that coordinator changes are critical in many cases.  I’m actually slightly more scared of Seattle this season for that reason.  They will still be very strong, however.

Why I’m much higher on…

Denver Broncos: Already a solid D and now they bring in the great Wade Phillips at DC.  He took over in Houston and took them from bottom 5 to top 5 in one season.  Couple that with a good offense that will force opposing offenses to take bigger risks to keep up on the scoreboard.  I’m loving this fantasy D and the round you can get them in.

Miami Dolphins: Already solid last season and now they add a terror in the middle with Suh and second-rounder Phillips to rotate in.  This D will also be a great value.

New York Giants: Remember when the Giants knocked off the undefeated Patriots in 2008?  Know who their DC was that year?  The same guy they hired back this off-season: Steve Spagnuolo.  While they will be a little short on talent, Spagnuolo’s presence will probably give this team a huge boost in fantasy production.  If you are in a large league and wait on your D, you could snatch them in the last round or grab them after their Week 1 game at Dallas.

Why I’m lower on…

Philadelphia Eagles: I’ll mostly point out the obvious by noting they scored nearly double the TDs (11) of the second closest D (6) last season and that is almost assuredly going to come down to earth this year.  This was an otherwise bad D and they will be the most overvalued defense picked by far.  Buyer beware.

New England Patriots: I get it.  They’re the Patriots.  They lost a lot but did reload in the draft so maybe the losses will be offset by young and hungry lions.  That said, I’ll have to see it to believe it and I won’t be believing it by draft day.  It should be noted, however, that their fantasy playoff schedule looks amazing with games in weeks 14-16 against Houston, Tennessee, and the Jets.  They might be worth drafting and stashing just for that.

Indianapolis Colts: A bad defense last season that doesn’t appear to be any better this season.  Won’t end up on many fantasy rosters and should continue to be a red carpet for other offenses all season long.  Then again, they don’t need much of a defense to win the AFC South.  Their playoff schedule is also nice but they would have to show a lot early on in the season for me to want to use them later.

Denver Broncos Week 17 Fantasy Analysis

Week 17 – vs Oakland – W 47-14

QB: Manning a bad fantasy game because of zero TDs but came close a few times.  His receivers will normally make some plays they didn’t make in this one.

RB: Anderson a monster game and no reason to think he’ll share time next season.  Should be the starter and has earned it as the best back on this team.  Hillman okay in this one but definitely the lesser runner.

WR: Thomas a big game and still a top 5 WR.  Just immense talent and seems to toy with defenses at times.  Sanders a solid game and no reason he won’t repeat next season.

TE: Thomas played but not targeted.  Have to hope his fall-off was injury related.

OL: Run blocking was strong but pass protection still a concern.  QB got hit a bit too much in this one.

Def: Lights-out against weak O.  Run D stout as usual.  Pass rush good against good line.  Gave up good game to RB.  Nothing else.

Denver Broncos Week 16 Fantasy Analysis

Week 16 – @ Cincy – L 28-37

QB: Manning a good fantasy game but made some terrible throws for 4 picks.  Have to hope the wet conditions were the issue.  Was protected pretty well.

RB: Anderson another huge game doing plenty of damage as a runner and receiver.  No question he has the job alone now and should have it next season.

WR: Thomas another big game and continues to look like one of the best WRs in the league.  Just amazing ability in the open field considering his size.  Sanders a huge game making some incredible plays.  Should be drafted next season where Jeffery was drafted this season.

TE: Thomas did little and wasn’t looked at much.  Just lost in the offense right now with the success of the run game.

OL: Another good game all-around.  Wasn’t great run blocking but did enough for their rusher.

Def: Gave up a few big runs but was mostly playing well.  Stat sheet was uglier than reality.  No pass rush.  Gave up good games to RBs and TE.  #1 WR played injured.

Denver Broncos Week 15 Fantasy Analysis

Week 15 – @ SD – W 22-10

QB: Manning very average again as they went to the run game a lot.  Still made some good throws but numbers just aren’t going to be great when they run like this.

RB: Anderson a good game but needed a ton of touches to do it.  Just didn’t look particularly special but also didn’t get excellent blocking.

WR: Thomas a big game and just looked incredible.  Another game where he looked like the best player on the field.  Sanders okay but numbers suffered because of run game.

TE: Thomas only 1 grab.  Same story as Sanders.

OL: Pass protection was good but run blocking was average, at best.  Couldn’t open holes on the inside.

Def: Run D excellent again.  Made some big plays.  Decent against the pass.  Gave up a good game to TE.  Nothing else.

Denver Broncos Week 14 Fantasy Analysis

Week 14 – vs Buffalo – W 24-17

QB: Manning held to little and made a couple really bad throws.  Really ugly game against elite D.

RB: Anderson another monster game due to TDs and not yardage.  Looked great when he got space and should keep this starting job next season.

WR: QB actually hurt in this one.  Thomas held to nearly nothing.  Welker and Sanders decent games but Sanders took some hard shots in this one.  Can’t see that continuing.

TE: Thomas DNP.  Tamme little and fumbled.  Just not a great replacement.  Ignore.

OL: Tough game against elite D.  Couldn’t open up much on the ground but was keeping pass rush at bay.

Def: Lead limited runs against.  Wasn’t great against those runs.  Thrown on for a ton but wasn’t really breaking.  Gave up big games to QB, #1 and #3 WRs, TE, and receiving RB.  #2 WR would have had big game but stopped a foot short of TD.