Half-Season Review of My 2015 Fantasy Football Sleepers

Time to look back on my sleepers. Always fun to take a look at them at the half-way point. Pretty much all total hits or complete misses. Roughly about half and half if the group of RBs are considered.

QB

Sam Bradford – Philadelphia Eagles – ADP: 16 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 27th – Grade: F—

Bigger problems on that O line than most people realized. I thought they wouldn’t be great but they’ve been ridiculously bad to this point. Things are starting to turn around a bit for the offense but pretty much no way Bradford cracks the top 10 at this point. Very disappointing.

Andy Dalton – Cincinnati Bengals – ADP: 24 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 6th – Grade: A+++

Only two points out of 3rd place on the season so easy to say I got this one correct, so far. As I stated in the preseason, he’ll be a stud if his targets stay healthy. And to this point, Green, Eifert and Jones have stayed on the field. Should continue to be great as long as that continues.

 

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RB

All NFC South Starters – Mark Ingram (ADP: 12), Jonathan Stewart (19), Doug Martin (32), Devonta Freeman (40) – Current Season Scoring at Position: Ingram 3rd, Stewart 24th, Martin 8th, Freeman 1st – Grade: A+++

Stewart is the only disappointment so far in this group. And I want to pat myself on the back for pushing Freeman over Coleman from day 1. Very doubtful they finish this well but certainly nailed this group.

Joseph Randle – Dallas Cowboys – ADP: 21 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 32nd – Grade: F

Looked great at times but the off-the-field stuff obviously killed him. Really a shame that he’s wasting his talent by not getting his head right. No way we see him on an NFL field again this season. Too bad.

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WR

Brandin Cooks – New Orleans Saints – ADP: 13 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 20th – Grade: D

Starting to turn things around after the Saints had the slow start. Still think he’s going to finish very strong and potentially top 10. Don’t count him out yet.

Breshad Perriman – Baltimore Ravens – ADP: 46 – Current Season Scoring at Position: Has not played

With the injury to Smith, the opportunity was amazing for him to put up huge numbers. Unfortunately, the preseason injury was worse than everyone knew. Looks like we’ll barely get to see him this season. Really hope we get a look at him to see what he might do next season. The opportunity to be a stud will be there again considering the Ravens’ situation.

Marvin Jones – Cincinnati Bengals – ADP: 68 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 34th – Grade: A

I thought he might get into the top 30 and still has a chance. Basically, when the Bengals are playing a team with an elite corner that’s going to be on Green, play Jones. Otherwise, expect paltry numbers. Worth owning for sure.

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TE

Jordan Cameron – Miami Dolphins – ADP: 8 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 25th – Grade: F—

Probably the player on this list I’m most disappointed in. The Miami O has been atrocious most of the season and Cameron has suffered terribly. Only twice in 8 games have they managed to score over 20 points. Just awful. Had high hopes for most of the offense and they have crushed those hopes with their mediocrity…

Austin Seferian-Jenkins – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ADP: 24 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 29th – No Grade for Injury

Still top 30 despite basically playing one game. Everyone knows about the week 1 explosion and safe to say he would probably be top 10 right now if he was healthy the whole way. Has massive potential. Just needs to stop being bitten by the injury bug.

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Defense

Denver Broncos – ADP: 11 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 1st – Grade: A++++

Was baffled by the ADP at the time and still can’t understand it. This one was painfully obvious to me so no surprise they are at the top and, considering their huge lead over 2nd right now, might stay there all season. Wade Phillips knows how to coach D, people. Hate him all you want as a head coach but he’s a Hall-of-Fame level coordinator.

Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Football Analysis – Week 6

Week 6 – @ Buffalo – W 34-21

QB: Dalton good again and continues to roll with his receivers healthy.  Continue starting as long as the big 3 are on the field.

RB: Bernard and Hill both good games with the unusual happening.  Bernard got the rushing TD, Hill a TD catch.  As with last season, they will continue to be the only must start RB committee in the league.

WR: Jones a big game in a great match up.  Will excel when there is good coverage on Green.  Green held in check in this game by great D.  Nothing to worry about.  Will happen when D is willing to take chances with others.

TE: Eifert a good game, nabbing a TD.  Also, probably a better option when Green is going to be covered well.

OL: Continues playing really well and starting to look like one of the best in the league without question.  Held great blitzing team in check and opened holes for run game.  Unit looks almost elite right now.

Def: Got run on more easily than expected.  Contained passing game for the most part.  Pass rush was solid at times.  Gave up good games to RB and #1 WR.  Good PPR game to TE.

Grading My Last Minute Fantasy Football Pickups for Week 6

Nailed basically half of these which isn’t too bad relatively speaking.  A few things happened that I didn’t expect which hurt some of these picks, especially the Baltimore/SF game.  Anywho.  I’ll be using the standard projections and scoring found at espn.com for these ratings.  Let’s see how I did!

20-50% owned tier

Pickup of the Week – QB Ryan Fitzpatrick – New York Jets – Projected 21st at QB – Finished 4th – Grade: A++

The rushing TD was icing on this cake.  He’s really just feeding those stud WRs he has and should be considered when the match up is right.  He is capable of better games than most give him credit for.

Honorable Mentions

WR Marvin Jones – Cincinnati Bengals – Projected 47th at WR – Finished 11th – Grade: A++

I keep beating this drum of how good he is and I’m not going to stop.  Made a ridiculous catch in this one despite glue-like coverage.  If he’s still available, grab him.  He’s practically a must-start, in my opinion.

WR Kamar Aiken – Baltimore Ravens – Projected 46th at WR – Finished 42nd – Grade: D

Smith and Gillmore played in this one and hurt his looks.  Still think he could be an okay play but they were spreading the ball around a little too much in this game.

TE Dwayne Allen – Indianapolis Colts – Projected 26th at TE – Finished 29th – Grade: F

Haven’t watched this one yet but, as I said, he’s TD-dependent and it didn’t happen.  All that needs to be said for him.

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Owned 20% or Less

Pickup of the Week – San Francisco 49ers Defense – Projected 22nd at D – Finished 21st – Grade: D

As I mentioned, Smith and Gillmore played giving the Ravens better personnel than I expected.  Still not a bad outing but would have been better if only…

Honorable Mentions

QB Brian Hoyer – Houston Texans – Projected 24th at QB – Finished 5th – Grade: A++

Great match up and he is throwing to what might be one of the top 5 WRs in the league in Hopkins.  You can roll with him when the cards are in his favor.

RB Chris Thompson – Washington NFL Franchise – Projected 33rd at RB – Finished 41st – Grade: F

As I said, he was a PPR play and 6 catches wasn’t bad at all.  Would have probably been a little better but he got banged up in this game.  Not a bad option for PPR when they get blown out.

WR Marquess Wilson – Chicago Bears – Projected 81st at WR – Finished 51st – Grade: B

The starters were healthy so his PT took a hit.  Still converted on a long pass but no TD this time.  I believe he could be the #2 by season’s end even if Royal stays healthy.

Last Minute Fantasy Football Pickups of Week 6 – Fitzpatrick and 49ers D

Not a bad week for most of my picks last week so hopefully that will continue into week 6.  RB seems to get uglier and uglier every week and the pickings are slim.  As always, I’ll be using the own percentage from CBS Sports since they are usually the highest.  If you play on other sites, these guys should be more available.  Let’s pick ’em up and play!

20%-50% Owned

Pickup of the Week – QB Ryan Fitzpatrick – New York Jets – Owned: 43%

Gets a Washington D that has been pretty stingy against the run.  This should force the Jets to chuck it around and Fitz should get some nice numbers this week.  He’s been feeding his stud WRs most of the season and it has paid off pretty nicely.  Washington does rush the QB really well but the Jets are coming off their bye and I’m hoping they are prepared for that.  Should be a multi-TD day for Fitz against a very weak defensive backfield.  (Projection: 290-3)

Honorable Mentions

WR Marvin Jones – Cincinnati Bengals – Owned: 42% – The Bills haven’t defended the pass well this season and, as long as the Red Rocket is hot, I’m taking my chances with Jones. (4-75-1)

WR Kamar Aiken – Baltimore Ravens – Owned: 38% – I’m starting to like this guy a little and believe he could be a big play receiver when the match up is right.  With the injuries in Baltimore right now, he’s worth the gamble. (5-85-1)

TE Dwayne Allen – Indianapolis Colts – Owned: 46% – We know he’s TD-dependent.  We also know the Colts will probably get blown out by the Patriots, which means a lot of throwing the ball.  (6-55-1)

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Owned 20% or less

Pickup of the Week – San Francisco 49ers Defense – Owned: 17%

While the Niners have had their struggles, their D has played well at home this season.  In two games, including one against the mighty Packers, they’ve surrendered only 20 points.  Now they get a Ravens team that could be starting  third-stringers or worse at every skill position outside of QB.  They could fall apart at any time but this looks like as good a match up as any for this D.  (11 fantasy points)

Honorable Mentions

QB Brian Hoyer – Houston Texans – Owned: 16% – Gets the Jags who were lit up on the ground last week by the Bucs.  I’m assuming they do whatever they have to to stop the run and force Hoyer to throw.  And he should be fine throwing to one of the top 5 WRs (I’m saying it!) in the league.  (265-3)

RB Chris Thompson – Washington NFL Franchise – Owned: 13% – A PPR play here.  The Jets should stop the run and their corners should force throws to go underneath.  Should mean good things for a RB that has been great as a receiver this season. (75 total yards-1)

WR Marquess Wilson – Chicago Bears – Owned: 19% – Came through for me last week and I expect the same this week against a struggling Lions’ D.  And I don’t see any reason he shouldn’t be the #2 WR in Chicago even when Royal returns.  Really like this guy. (5-85-1)

Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Football Analysis – Week 5

Week 5 – vs Seattle – W 27-24

QB: Dalton a huge game and continues to play incredible.  Still a must-start if his targets are healthy.  Practically match-up-proof.

RB: Hill held to nearly zero and didn’t look great against tough D.  Bernard’s speed played better and he had good game.  A little worried about Hill but they were playing from behind in this one.  Will be different when they have a lead.

WR: Green and Jones decent games.  Both look great and Jones is still a strong match up start.  Keep riding them.

TE: Eifert a monster game and looked awesome again.  Just a dominant player when he gets the targets.  Almost uncoverable at times.

OL: Pretty nice game against tough D.  Did get QB hit a little but not terrible.  Was solid in run blocking.  One of the better units around.

Def: Got trucked on the ground.  Just couldn’t contain speedy runner.  Strong against weak passing game.  Pass rush was solid against bad line.  Gave up huge game to RB.  Decent games to WRs.

Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Football Analysis – Week 4

Week 4 – vs KC – W 36-21

QB: Dalton a decent game as they didn’t have to do a ton and lost TOP bad.  Still good numbers and looked great.  not slowing down at all with his targets playing well.

RB: Hill a monster game getting 3 red zone TDs.  Didn’t do much else.  Did look great on all the TD runs.  Bernard a good game and continues to look great.  This isn’t going to stop being a committee.

WR: Green and Sanu nice games and could have been better if not for big lead.  Jones dropped a long TD pass and did nearly nothing.  Had D beat easily on the play.  Should be fine in closer games.

TE: Eifert a decent game and continues to play extremely well.  No slowing down in sight.

OL: Really strong game against tough match up.  Did great everywhere and a great sign of potential things to come.  Should keep this offense rolling.

Def: Was on the field a ton and gave up the yards to go with it but no TDs.  Pass rush was great and made plays when it mattered most.  Gave up big games to receiving RB and #1 WR.  Held stud TE to average game.

Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Football Analysis – Week 3

Week 3 – @ Baltimore – W 28-24

QB: Dalton a huge game and looks fantastic with his weapons healthy.  Is making great throws and allowing his guys to make plays.  Could easily finish as a top 5 QB if his targets stay on the field.

RB: Hill did little despite looking very good early against a tough D.  He should be okay.  Bernard a decent game and continues to be far better than people think as a runner.  Just great vision, speed, and elusiveness.

WR: Green a monster game and made some really great plays.  The other pass-catchers being healthy takes a lot of pressure off of him.  Jones another big game.  Don’t know why he isn’t considered as a better fantasy option.  A mid-to-low end #2 at the very least, in my opinion.

TE: Eifert held to zero but will be fine.  It will happen as other players have huge games.  He’ll get his numbers more weeks than not.

OL: Looking pretty good.  Pass protection was very strong.  Run blocking was hit and miss but the match up wasn’t easy.  They weren’t terrible.

Def: Run D was crazy good and held runners to almost zero.  Torched through the air.  Wasn’t covering as well as they have been.  Gave up monster game to #1 WR, nothing else.

Last Minute Fantasy Football Pickups of Week 3 – Jones and Hurns

Been a crazy week away from fantasy football so I’ll be getting my grades for last week’s picks up…eventually.  As for this week, tough to find any RBs I like.  Other than that, loving some of these match ups.  All ownership percentages will be taken from CBS Sports this season as they are typically the highest.  So, if you play on another site, these guys should be more readily available.  Let’s plug and play!

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20%-50% Owned

Pickup of the Week – WR Marvin Jones – Cincinnati Bengals – Owned: 25%

Gets the Ravens this week who haven’t been stopping WRs for quite a while now.  The game is at Baltimore so hopefully the Bengals will not win in a blowout and let their run game do all the work.  Jones had a nice long TD grab last week and I think he gets another TD this week.  If this game turns into a shootout, he could be in for a monster.  I don’t expect that so I’m tempering my projection for him.  (Projection: 5-95-1)

Honorable Mentions

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick – New York Jets – Owned: 23%

Has been playing much better than people who haven’t seen him probably realize.  Obviously, the Jets will want to run against Philly but Fitz will probably find Marshall for plenty.  (280-3)

RB Lance Dunbar – Dallas Cowboys – Owned: 25%

A PPR play here.  Atlanta just got tore up by Vereen’s receiving so the door is open for Dunbar to do his damage this week.  (75 total yards-1)

TE Crockett Gillmore – Baltimore Ravens – Owned: 48%

One of the hot pickups of the week and with good reason.  Flacco needs players to throw to and I think it’s clear he found a good one.  Tough match up with the Bengals but he should still get his share. (4-60-1)

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Owned 20% or less

Pickup of the Week – WR Allen Hurns – Jacksonville Jaguars – Owned: 17%

At New England this week which is probably a dream match up as the Pats have been explosive on offense and atrocious on defense so far.  That should equal the Jags playing from behind and throwing a ton allowing Hurns to have a rather strong game.  And with the youth in Jacksonville, it’s not real likely they pull anyone to save them no matter how ugly the game gets.  They need the experience and Hurns could end up as a top 15 WR this week. (6-110-1)

Honorable Mentions

QB Ryan Mallett – Houston Texans – Owned: 7%

Yes, Tampa did ruin the fantasy dreams of everyone starting Saints players last week but I’m not buying that.  I think Mallett takes advantage of the match up and plays his way into the top 12 QBs this week.  (270-3)

WR Nate Washington – Houston Texans – Owned: 15%

And Mallett will need someone to throw to other than Hopkins every once in a while.  Washington should show his savvy veteran moves this week and snag a TD.  (5-65-1)

TE Gavin Escobar – Dallas Cowboys – Owned: 3%

With Witten banged up but apparently playing, Escobar looks like a really sneaky play this week.  Witten could be playing a bit of a decoy for his talented backup and give him a nice fantasy week against the Falcons. (5-45-1)

Cincinnati Bengals Fantasy Football Analysis – Week 2

Week 2 – vs SD – W 24-19

QB: Dalton very good in this game and will continue to be good if targets stay healthy.  Making great decisions so far this season.

RB: Hill fumbled twice and was benched for most of second half.  Bernard took over and was a stud.  Probably the most talented combo of runners in the league.  Both are elite backs.

WR: Green and Jones both got TDs but not much else.  Can’t double team both and TE all the time so they should be pretty consistent.  Both should have double-digit TD totals by the end of the season.

TE: Eifert another TD and made great play on it.  Just keeps beating coverage and doing it with ease.  Starting to look like top 5 TE.

OL: Looking extremely good right now.  Run blocking is very strong and pass protection is good.  Might be one of the top 5 units in the league at the moment.

Def: Couldn’t stop the run. Covered WRs well but still got burned once.  Just wasn’t great up front.  Gave up good games to RBs and #2 and #3 WRs.  Decent game to TE.

Grading My Week 1 Last Minute Fantasy Football Pickups

Nailed a few of these in the difficult-to-judge first week of the NFL fantasy season.  Not a bad start at all.  As with last season, I’ll be using the standard projections and scoring found at espn.com for these ratings.  Let’s see how I did!

20-50% owned tier

Pickup of the Week – QB Marcus Mariota – Projected: 16th among QB – Finished: 3rd – Grade: A++

Didn’t need many throws to put up monster numbers against the terrible Bucs D.  Not completely sold on him yet since this came against Tampa and a lot of work was done after the catch for him.  But there’s no doubt about his accuracy and his arm.  He looks great and I get the feeling he will be able to play well against tougher match ups.

Honorable Mentions

WR Marvin Jones – Projected 72nd among WR – Finished: T64th – Grade: D

Close but not quite on him.  He had a TD catch but the D made a great play and knocked it out of his hands.  He still made good runs after the catch on his receptions and I’m a big believer in Jones.  He’ll be on this list again almost assuredly.

TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins – Projected 22nd among TE – Finished: 2nd – Grade: A++

Wow!  This guy looked legit.  Granted, it came against one of the weaker defenses from last season but he still made some great plays in this one.  Deserves to be owned on all leagues and should be on his way to a top 10 TE season.

Minnesota Vikings Defense – Projected: 12th among Def – Finished: 17th – Grade: F

Well, Carlos Hyde is an absurdly good football player and now the world knows it.  Minnesota’s O did the D no favors but, when you can’t stop the run, you’re going to have a pretty bad fantasy game.  They did come close to returning the blocked FG for a TD that would have saved their fantasy stats.  But this team laid an egg and I would expect better things in the coming weeks.

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20% or less tier

Pickup of the Week – WR Corey Brown – Projected 75th among WR – Finished: T64th – Grade: D

Never got the deep throw I expected.  Did get one target around the end zone but was well covered and was overthrown.  He’s going to hit some deep plays but it will be a gamble when it happens.

Honorable Mentions

RB Benny Cunningham – Projected: 18th among RB – Finished: 19th – Grade: B+

Surprised at the projection by ESPN considering the match up but Cunningham looked great all-around in this one.  Was a really nice grab in PPR.  Such a talented player and hard to believe he’s a third stringer when everyone is healthy.

RB Khiry Robinson – Projected: 52nd among RB – Finished: 26th – Grade: A

Continues to look great when he gets touches and is making a lot of people wonder where Spiller will fit in this offense once he returns.  It will be a committee in New Orleans until someone else gets injured so enjoy these match ups when you get them.

WR Allen Hurns – Projected: 58th among WR – Finished: 41st – Grade: C+

Looked good even though the numbers weren’t great.  Came about a foot away from a TD but couldn’t stay in bounds after the catch.  If he gets that, he’d have been a top 20 play.  Close does not count for much in fantasy football…