Half-Season Review of My 2015 Fantasy Football Sleepers

Time to look back on my sleepers. Always fun to take a look at them at the half-way point. Pretty much all total hits or complete misses. Roughly about half and half if the group of RBs are considered.

QB

Sam Bradford – Philadelphia Eagles – ADP: 16 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 27th – Grade: F—

Bigger problems on that O line than most people realized. I thought they wouldn’t be great but they’ve been ridiculously bad to this point. Things are starting to turn around a bit for the offense but pretty much no way Bradford cracks the top 10 at this point. Very disappointing.

Andy Dalton – Cincinnati Bengals – ADP: 24 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 6th – Grade: A+++

Only two points out of 3rd place on the season so easy to say I got this one correct, so far. As I stated in the preseason, he’ll be a stud if his targets stay healthy. And to this point, Green, Eifert and Jones have stayed on the field. Should continue to be great as long as that continues.

 

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RB

All NFC South Starters – Mark Ingram (ADP: 12), Jonathan Stewart (19), Doug Martin (32), Devonta Freeman (40) – Current Season Scoring at Position: Ingram 3rd, Stewart 24th, Martin 8th, Freeman 1st – Grade: A+++

Stewart is the only disappointment so far in this group. And I want to pat myself on the back for pushing Freeman over Coleman from day 1. Very doubtful they finish this well but certainly nailed this group.

Joseph Randle – Dallas Cowboys – ADP: 21 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 32nd – Grade: F

Looked great at times but the off-the-field stuff obviously killed him. Really a shame that he’s wasting his talent by not getting his head right. No way we see him on an NFL field again this season. Too bad.

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WR

Brandin Cooks – New Orleans Saints – ADP: 13 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 20th – Grade: D

Starting to turn things around after the Saints had the slow start. Still think he’s going to finish very strong and potentially top 10. Don’t count him out yet.

Breshad Perriman – Baltimore Ravens – ADP: 46 – Current Season Scoring at Position: Has not played

With the injury to Smith, the opportunity was amazing for him to put up huge numbers. Unfortunately, the preseason injury was worse than everyone knew. Looks like we’ll barely get to see him this season. Really hope we get a look at him to see what he might do next season. The opportunity to be a stud will be there again considering the Ravens’ situation.

Marvin Jones – Cincinnati Bengals – ADP: 68 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 34th – Grade: A

I thought he might get into the top 30 and still has a chance. Basically, when the Bengals are playing a team with an elite corner that’s going to be on Green, play Jones. Otherwise, expect paltry numbers. Worth owning for sure.

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TE

Jordan Cameron – Miami Dolphins – ADP: 8 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 25th – Grade: F—

Probably the player on this list I’m most disappointed in. The Miami O has been atrocious most of the season and Cameron has suffered terribly. Only twice in 8 games have they managed to score over 20 points. Just awful. Had high hopes for most of the offense and they have crushed those hopes with their mediocrity…

Austin Seferian-Jenkins – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ADP: 24 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 29th – No Grade for Injury

Still top 30 despite basically playing one game. Everyone knows about the week 1 explosion and safe to say he would probably be top 10 right now if he was healthy the whole way. Has massive potential. Just needs to stop being bitten by the injury bug.

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Defense

Denver Broncos – ADP: 11 – Current Season Scoring at Position: 1st – Grade: A++++

Was baffled by the ADP at the time and still can’t understand it. This one was painfully obvious to me so no surprise they are at the top and, considering their huge lead over 2nd right now, might stay there all season. Wade Phillips knows how to coach D, people. Hate him all you want as a head coach but he’s a Hall-of-Fame level coordinator.

New Orleans Saints Fantasy Football Analysis – Week 6

Week 6 – vs Atlanta – W 31-21

QB: Brees a good game but only one TD.  Abused the D going to TEs and looked great on his accuracy to them.  Getting better every week it seems.

RB: Ingram a good game despite low yardage.  Looks great but line did him no favors in tough match up here.  Will continue to be fine in better match ups.

WR: Snead and Cooks held to average games.  Game plan seem to be for TEs to dominate early and often so probably an anomaly.  Not worried about them because of this game.

TE: Watson a huge game and game plan clearly designed for him to dominate.  Got targeted from start to finish.  Wouldn’t expect it to continue.

OL: Protected really well in this one.  Couldn’t get any push for run game.  Tough match up so expect better against weaker teams.

Def: Pass rush was good and helped by shaky game from QB.  Everything else was bad.  Can’t contain the run.  Coverage on good WRs is terrible.  Gave up monster to RB.  Good game to WR.

New Orleans Saints Fantasy Football Analysis – Week 5

Week 5 – @ Philly – L 17-39

QB: Brees was rushed heavily and had some passes dropped.  Still put up good numbers as garbage time saved him.  Protection should be better than this.

RB: Ingram an average game as deficit limited touches.  Looked good and was moving piles and getting extra yards.  Would have been a huge game for him if the score was close.

WR: Cooks and Snead huge games although a decent chunk for both came in garbage time.  Snead is the clear #2 option now and worth owning in leagues and starting when the match up is right.  Not a superstar but a solid player.  Skills are good overall but not elite anywhere.

TE: Watson a nice game making a TD grab.  Still not being targeted enough to use and justifiably so.  He’s a savvy veteran but the skills aren’t really there anymore.

OL: Solid run blocking.  Was making good holes for runners.  Awful pass protection.  Just couldn’t handle D line at times.  Has to be better than this.

Def: Pretty awful everywhere.  Got ran on almost at will by O.  Pass rush was nonexistent.  Pass coverage was actually fairly good but it came against weaker receiving corps.  Gave up good games everywhere.

New Orleans Saints Fantasy Football Analysis – Week 2

Week 2 – vs Tampa Bay – L 19-26

QB: Brees dinged a little in first half.  Protection still having issues.  Was throwing pretty well until the injury.  Didn’t look good on deep balls.

RB: Ingram still looks like the main guy.  Had good game getting a goal line TD and more receptions.  Spiller did look fast as usual on his touches.  Robinson still runs extremely well.  I’m believing in Ingram for now.  Need better blocking.

WR: Cooks and Colston decent games while Snead got TD.  Cooks still looks like the most talented right now and I see no reason to think he won’t be a strong #2 and possible #1 WR.  Coleman starting to look more enticing.  Would be a stud if he started getting regular targets.

TE: Watson did little and this might continue as TE is needed more for blocking than receiving.  Kind of thinking no TE on this team will be fantasy relevant rest of season.

OL: Got dominated by defensive front.  Couldn’t open up anything for running game.  Pass protection was iffy.  So far, the off season acquisitions are not panning out.

Def: Was getting run on for plenty and coverage was not great.  Start everyone against until things change.  Gave up good games to RB and #2 WR (#1 WR was decoy in this one).

New Orleans Saints Fantasy Football Analysis – Week 1

Week 1 – @ Arizona – L 19-31

QB: Brees looked pretty good behind a better line.  A little out of sync with receivers at times but should be very good as the season progresses.  Wasn’t getting every other pass knocked down at the LOS like last season.

RB: Ingram and Robinson looked good running when space was there.  Excellent receiving games for both.  They’re so good it’s hard to imagine where Spiller fits in when he returns.  He really isn’t needed at the moment.

WR: Cooks an okay game but just didn’t convert any of the big plays.  He will in the weeks to come and is still a stud.  Coleman a good game and looks good enough to at least get as many targets as Colston, if not more.  Colston looked rough in this one.

TE:  Watson okay but will be a gamble every week.  Until there is some consistency, stay away.  I just don’t see a whole lot here fantasy-wise.

OL: Vastly improved from last season.  Just a night and day difference, especially in pass protection.  Tough match up in run game in this one but the talent here makes this offense really dangerous every game.

Def: Just as bad as they were early last season.  Wasn’t stopping the run.  Torched through the air.  Amazing Ryan is still the DC.  Gave up good games to virtually every position.  Start everyone against until they stop a few teams.

10 Fantasy Football Sleepers for 2015

Time to dig into my sleepers for this season.  A lot of guys I like that I think are worth reaching on this time around so hard to pick just ten.  I will be using the current ADP for each position from FantasyPros so those numbers could change.  Here we go!

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QB

Sam Bradford – Philadelphia Eagles – ADP: 16

Little mystery here as Bradford is a popular sleeper everywhere.  The simple reality is this: if he stays healthy and hits, he’s a top 10 QB with top 5 potential.  Not bad for a guy you can stash behind a starter even in the largest of leagues.  And I have to believe Chip Kelly wouldn’t have sold the farm like he did to get him if he wasn’t the perfect QB in his eyes.  Little risk and high reward here.

Andy Dalton – Cincinnati Bengals – ADP: 24

I mentioned in my QB rankings that his top 3 targets missed a combined 34 games last season and star A.J. Green played hurt quite a bit.  If his key receivers can stay on the field and that running game continues to show its legitimacy behind him, there is little reason to think he won’t be a solid start most weeks.  Yes, he might be up and down at times.  But with healthy targets, I expect more ups from him and the potential for a top 10 season.

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RB

All NFC South Starters – Mark Ingram (ADP: 12), Jonathan Stewart (19), Doug Martin (32), Devonta Freeman (40)

Improved offensive lines for most of these guys is the key reason for the love.  Particularly, Tampa had one of the worst looking run-blocking lines in the league last season and all Bucs RBs suffered.  Don’t discount Martin’s talent just yet and enjoy the value you’ll get out of him this season.  Atlanta was nearly as bad and when they were blocking, Freeman really looked strong at times.  I think he takes a nice leap this season and will ultimately outproduce Coleman.

Joseph Randle – Dallas Cowboys – ADP: 21

I really think people are sleeping on Randle and he is one of the steals of the draft this season.  The fear of McFadden is downright baffling to me.  He looked old and slow in Oakland last season and there is little reason to believe that gets him into a heavy workload in Dallas this year.  Put it this way.  With Randle’s off-the-field issues, the Cowboys had to bring in an insurance policy for the guy they liked so they grabbed an aging veteran.  That’s all McFadden should be considered: insurance.  Randle is the more talented back and everyone that passes on him on draft day will be kicking themselves by Week 3 for their oversight.

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WR

Brandin Cooks – New Orleans Saints – ADP: 13

Was a stud indoors last season and will play most of his games (12) there this season.  Add that to the loss of Jimmy Graham from this offense and Cooks is primed for a huge season as someone will have to be Drew Brees’ favorite target.  Don’t be surprised to see Cooks finish in the top 10 at WR with a chance at top 5 numbers.  The TD total just might find its way into double digits for this explosive young player.

Breshad Perriman – Baltimore Ravens – ADP: 46

The lingering injury is becoming a concern but the situation is still too good to pass up on this rookie.  He enters an offense directed by former Bears head coach Marc Trestman, who focused on getting the ball exclusively to his studs more than most coaches in the league.  A lot of Bear’s box scores had no one other than the starters touching the ball.  This bodes well for Perriman as he could easily be a red zone favorite for Joe Flacco.  If he can get healthy, he might be a strong #2 by mid-season for fantasy owners.

Marvin Jones – Cincinnati Bengals – ADP: 68

Probably a forgotten commodity because of the injury that kept him out all of last season but don’t sleep on his talent.  He’ll go undrafted in many leagues but my guess is he’ll be rostered in most leagues no later than week 4.  And if he gets back to his 2013 self, he’ll be in many starting lineups by mid-season.  A fully healthy Bengals’ offense will be one of the best in the league and Jones will be a big reason for that.  His ability to aggressively go after the ball will once again show what a red zone threat he can be in 2015.

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TE

Jordan Cameron – Miami Dolphins – ADP: 8

Another forgotten player because of injury but things have changed for Cameron.  An improved QB, a better offense, and a coordinator that won’t get him killed should help Cameron make his way into the top 5 at TE this season.  His talent is almost as good as any other TE in the league and he should prove that this season.  A double-digit TD total wouldn’t be the least bit shocking to me.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ADP: 24

Showed tantalizing talent in a very short period of time on the field last season.  The injuries have to scare you a little but the situation is fantastic.  Two stud WRs on the outside should keep things easy for him in the middle.  And a rookie QB should be looking his way often as a safety valve.  While he won’t have a monopoly on red zone targets in Tampa, he could still put up enough numbers to creep into the top 12 at TE.  Can’t wait to watch him work this season.

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Defense

Denver Broncos – ADP: 11

Ranked outside the top ten and will finish top 5, maybe even top 2.  Wade Phillips takes over as the new DC and just take a look at what he did when he took over in Houston.  The season before he took over, the Texans finished 31st in scoring.  His first season in Houston, they finished 2nd.  Now he takes over a Denver defense with a LB crew that should have Phillips licking his chops when game planning.  Say what you will about Phillips as a head coach, this man can and will get it done as a coordinator.

New Orleans Saints Week 11 Fantasy Analysis

Week 11 – vs Cincy – L 10-27

QB: Brees was okay but was uncharacteristically inaccurate.  Had time to throw and was missing a lot high.  Receivers had to make some great plays just to give him the numbers he did get.

RB: Ingram got some room but was contained by D.  Wasn’t getting hit before the line but wasn’t getting much after crossing it.  Still looks strong and just have to chalk this up to good D.  Cadet continues to impress as a receiver.

WR: Stills got the TD but Cooks and Colston had more yards.  Cooks now injured.  Impossible to start any confidently.

TE: Graham got hit in his shoulder early and didn’t play well after.  Just didn’t get many looks and have to assume it was because of the shoulder.

OL: Played well and better than score indicates.  Solid all-around and was surprisingly good pass blocking.

Def: Got trampled on the ground and would have given up more throw the air if not for deficit.  Wasn’t pressuring QB and couldn’t fill gaps.  Gave up huge games to QB, RB, and #1 WR.  2 TDs to TE but held in check otherwise.

New Orlens Saints Week 10 Fantasy Analysis

Week 10 – vs SF – L 24-27

QB: Brees had big game but got hit a bunch again.  He’s holding up but have to continue to be a bit concerned about that.

RB: Ingram another big game.  Blocking is there and he continues to look incredible as a rusher, even in tough match ups.  No reason to think this doesn’t continue.

WR: Cooks another big game inside a dome.  Pretty much a must-start in that situation.  Colston and Stills did little although both dropped balls that hampered production badly.

TE: Graham another monster game.  Couldn’t be stopped regardless of coverage.

OL: Run blocking was strong against tough D but pass blocking struggled again.  Got QB hit far too much.

Def: Good job bringing pressure on QB and holding run game to average game.  Still gave up big games to RB and #2 WR.  Held everything else in check, including holding TE to nearly nothing.

New Orleans Saints Week 8 Fantasy Analysis

Week 8 – vs GB – W 44-23

QB: Big game for Brees.  Line issues are still a little there but he managed it well again.

RB: Monster game for Ingram.  Head and shoulders above the other backs on this team at this point.  Cadet a decent PPR game but not getting carries.  All Ingram.

WR: Cooks a big game with Colston and Stills decent.  Just rolling the dice playing these guys.  Likely will produce but who has the big game is anyone’s guess week-to-week.

TE: Graham looked back to normal for the most part and certainly back to being must-start.

OL: Run blocking extremely good opening holes all game.  Pass blocking still shaky but QB makes them look better than they really are.

Def: Average against the run but lead limited carries.  Torched for a ton through the air.  Gave up good games to QB, RB (receiving), WR #2 & #3.  Decent game to seldom used TE.  Held Nelson to little.

New Orleans Saints Week 9 Fantasy Analysis

Week 9 – @ Carolina – W 28-10

QB: Brees a good game due to rare QB sneak TD.  Was getting rushed and hit quite a bit but still making great throws.  Wasn’t blitzed much and likely would have been a worse game if he had been.

RB: Ingram another monster game.  Line is not doing a ton and he is making a lot out of nothing at times.  Just looks incredible when he plays like this.  Cadet caught some passes but not enough to consider for fantasy at the moment.

WR: Stills led the WRs this game.  Good game but none got a TD.  Colston and Cooks did little.  As usual, hard to guess who will be the main guy in a game.

TE: Graham awesome and another big game for him.  Looks healthy and unstoppable right now.

OL: Helped by very little blitzing.  Looked bad on the few plays they did bring extra guys.  Didn’t block 4-man rush very well.  Run blocking was the stronger side again.  3 total rushing TDs this game.

Def: Bad QB play and drops by receivers helped mask things a bit.  Was covering pretty well but could have easily been torched.  Held every skill player in check this game.  Run D was shaky on limited carries.