fantasy football sleepers

10 Fantasy Football Sleepers for 2015

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Time to dig into my sleepers for this season.  A lot of guys I like that I think are worth reaching on this time around so hard to pick just ten.  I will be using the current ADP for each position from FantasyPros so those numbers could change.  Here we go!

 

QB

Sam Bradford – Philadelphia Eagles – ADP: 16

Little mystery here as Bradford is a popular sleeper everywhere.  The simple reality is this: if he stays healthy and hits, he’s a top 10 QB with top 5 potential.  Not bad for a guy you can stash behind a starter even in the largest of leagues.  And I have to believe Chip Kelly wouldn’t have sold the farm like he did to get him if he wasn’t the perfect QB in his eyes.  Little risk and high reward here.

Andy Dalton – Cincinnati Bengals – ADP: 24

I mentioned in my QB rankings that his top 3 targets missed a combined 34 games last season and star A.J. Green played hurt quite a bit.  If his key receivers can stay on the field and that running game continues to show its legitimacy behind him, there is little reason to think he won’t be a solid start most weeks.  Yes, he might be up and down at times.  But with healthy targets, I expect more ups from him and the potential for a top 10 season.

RB

All NFC South Starters – Mark Ingram (ADP: 12), Jonathan Stewart (19), Doug Martin (32), Devonta Freeman (40)

Improved offensive lines for most of these guys is the key reason for the love.  Particularly, Tampa had one of the worst looking run-blocking lines in the league last season and all Bucs RBs suffered.  Don’t discount Martin’s talent just yet and enjoy the value you’ll get out of him this season.  Atlanta was nearly as bad and when they were blocking, Freeman really looked strong at times.  I think he takes a nice leap this season and will ultimately outproduce Coleman.

Joseph Randle – Dallas Cowboys – ADP: 21

I really think people are sleeping on Randle and he is one of the steals of the draft this season.  The fear of McFadden is downright baffling to me.  He looked old and slow in Oakland last season and there is little reason to believe that gets him into a heavy workload in Dallas this year.  Put it this way.  With Randle’s off-the-field issues, the Cowboys had to bring in an insurance policy for the guy they liked so they grabbed an aging veteran.  That’s all McFadden should be considered: insurance.  Randle is the more talented back and everyone that passes on him on draft day will be kicking themselves by Week 3 for their oversight.

WR

Brandin Cooks – New Orleans Saints – ADP: 13

Was a stud indoors last season and will play most of his games (12) there this season.  Add that to the loss of Jimmy Graham from this offense and Cooks is primed for a huge season as someone will have to be Drew Brees’ favorite target.  Don’t be surprised to see Cooks finish in the top 10 at WR with a chance at top 5 numbers.  The TD total just might find its way into double digits for this explosive young player.

Breshad Perriman – Baltimore Ravens – ADP: 46

The lingering injury is becoming a concern but the situation is still too good to pass up on this rookie.  He enters an offense directed by former Bears head coach Marc Trestman, who focused on getting the ball exclusively to his studs more than most coaches in the league.  A lot of Bear’s box scores had no one other than the starters touching the ball.  This bodes well for Perriman as he could easily be a red zone favorite for Joe Flacco.  If he can get healthy, he might be a strong #2 by mid-season for fantasy owners.

Marvin Jones – Cincinnati Bengals – ADP: 68

Probably a forgotten commodity because of the injury that kept him out all of last season but don’t sleep on his talent.  He’ll go undrafted in many leagues but my guess is he’ll be rostered in most leagues no later than week 4.  And if he gets back to his 2013 self, he’ll be in many starting lineups by mid-season.  A fully healthy Bengals’ offense will be one of the best in the league and Jones will be a big reason for that.  His ability to aggressively go after the ball will once again show what a red zone threat he can be in 2015.

TE

Jordan Cameron – Miami Dolphins – ADP: 8

Another forgotten player because of injury but things have changed for Cameron.  An improved QB, a better offense, and a coordinator that won’t get him killed should help Cameron make his way into the top 5 at TE this season.  His talent is almost as good as any other TE in the league and he should prove that this season.  A double-digit TD total wouldn’t be the least bit shocking to me.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ADP: 24

Showed tantalizing talent in a very short period of time on the field last season.  The injuries have to scare you a little but the situation is fantastic.  Two stud WRs on the outside should keep things easy for him in the middle.  And a rookie QB should be looking his way often as a safety valve.  While he won’t have a monopoly on red zone targets in Tampa, he could still put up enough numbers to creep into the top 12 at TE.  Can’t wait to watch him work this season.

Defense

Denver Broncos – ADP: 11

Ranked outside the top ten and will finish top 5, maybe even top 2.  Wade Phillips takes over as the new DC and just take a look at what he did when he took over in Houston.  The season before he took over, the Texans finished 31st in scoring.  His first season in Houston, they finished 2nd.  Now he takes over a Denver defense with a LB crew that should have Phillips licking his chops when game planning.  Say what you will about Phillips as a head coach, this man can and will get it done as a coordinator.

Half-Season Grades for My 2014 Fantasy Football Sleepers

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Time to take a look at how my sleepers have done up to this point in the season.  Not very pretty as this list has been marred by injuries and other factors.  But they’re my picks and you got to own up to this stuff so here goes.

QBs

E.J. Manuel – Grade: F

I actually still think he has the talent to be a good QB and know, without a doubt, a big part of his benching has to do with the simple fact his receivers dropped a ton of balls, particularly in his last game before the benching.  I found it kind of funny when ESPN was showing highlights of him to announce he had lost his job, they would show the throw he made to Mike Williams that hit down field him in stride and in his hands and bounced off of them as he clearly can’t catch the ball.  I don’t know what his future will be but I think he could reemerge as a starter, either with the Bills or elsewhere.

Jake Locker – Grade: D

The injury bug bites Locker again and now the Titans have decided to move on and see what their future might be with Mettenberger.  Still like his ability but it just seems like he will never be able to handle the punishment a starter has to take in the NFL.  It’s a shame and here’s hoping for the best for Locker.

RB

Ray Rice – No Grade

We all know the story.  But I will say this about this pick: the Ravens running back has been a big sleeper this season.  Most people projected Rice outside of the top 20 at RB and Forsett is currently 9th in scoring at the position.  I stated the real problem last season was the O-line in Baltimore and Kubiak was going to fix things.  He has and, if Rice’s issues hadn’t arose, I’d give myself an A for this pick.

Chris Johnson – Grade: D

Been up-and-down so far for Johnson as he has shown some nice flashes, including last week against KC, but isn’t wrestling the starting job away from Ivory.  The ability is still there but, with the QB struggles the Jets have suffered through, there just isn’t a ton of upside with many players on this offense.

WR

Keenan Allen – Grade: F

Just a colossal disappointment thus far.  He’s currently third in scoring at WR…on his own team.  Ugh.  Has done little even with some good match ups throughout the season.  Part of the problem has been the somewhat surprising play of teammates Malcom Floyd and Antonio Gates as the ball has been spread around to them more than expected.  But Allen has still been a burden for those that drafted him and it’s hard to believe that changes now.

Jeremy Maclin – Grade: A

As I stated, I believe he’s a better receiver, especially in the hands department, than DeSean Jackson and he has been a monster this season.  Currently third in scoring at WR despite being projected outside the top 30.  Nailed this pick and it’s nice to get one right…if only one…

Marques Colston – Grade: F

I think every fantasy owner has come to hate the Saints WRs this season as they have been the most boom-or-bust group in the league.  You get the feeling each one could be consistent if Brees would just throw them the ball consistently.  Colston has disappointed and it’s really hard to trust him at all.  He does have a nice second half schedule but putting him in your lineup is just such a risk.  Got to hate it right now if you own him.

TE

Garrett Graham and Ladarius Green – Grade: F

Graham has been a bit of a shock as the TE position just hasn’t been a part of the offense in Houston.  One of the most underused positions on any team in the league so far.  Green has not seen the field much as Gates drank from the Fountain of Youth and has been strong this season.  The expected fall didn’t come and Green hasn’t been given many chances.  I suppose if you are in the market for TE handcuffs, he’s a star!

Defense

Buffalo Bills – Grade: A

Currently 5th in scoring and the two teams directly in front of them have not had their bye.  Continues to be a stud unit and should be the rest of the way despite a couple tough match ups.

2014 Last Minute Fantasy Football Sleepers

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Plenty of guys that I like going late or not going at all in drafts.  QB is getting so deep that it almost doesn’t matter much to find a sleeper but here goes.

QBs

E.J. Manuel

I’ve heard a lot of criticism of Manuel so far and, frankly, I don’t understand it.  While he did log a couple of truly bad fantasy games last year, he was mostly pretty good as a rookie QB with a lot of youth at WR as well.  He looked very poised in the pocket and did a great job making smart throws.  If you take away the one 4 INT game, he threw 11 TDs and only 5 INTs in 9 games.  Obviously, the TDs are still a little low for fantasy but he was a rookie and so were some of his main targets, like Woods and Goodwin.  The addition of Sammy Watkins gives him another weapon to throw to and possibly an upgraded one over Stevie Johnson.  If Manuel can avoid the injury bug, it wouldn’t be the least bit surprising to me to find him finish in the top 15 QBs this season.  The recipe for a much more explosive offense in Buffalo is certainly there.  Manuel won’t be taken in most drafts but is certainly worth keeping an eye on early.

Jake Locker

A bit of a popular sleeper because of his sneaky rushing ability and very talented group of receivers.  The addition of Ken Whisenhunt at head coach will obviously help but Locker’s sleeper appeal might ride a bit on the running game in Tennessee.  If rookie Bishop Sanky struggles and Shonn Greene isn’t able to step in, this team might have to rely on the passing game to compete which would mean more stats for Locker.  Like Manuel, he won’t be taken in most drafts but it’s certainly possible Whisenhunt works some magic on Locker like he did with Philip Rivers last season.

RBs

Ray Rice

I’ll say something that almost no one will agree with me on: Ray Rice didn’t look that bad last season.  I know.  The numbers were terrible.  But so were Bernard Pierce’s.  And, in reality, Pierce’s were actually slightly worse, so the idea he is going to take over the spot this season seems a little suspect to me.  The real problem with the Ravens last season was the play-calling and scheme.  The team had 3-time All-Pro FB Vontae Leach but for some reason used him very little as a lead blocker.  Most of the time Rice was running behind a terrible O-line with Leach on the sidelines and his numbers paid the price.  So, I say again.  Rice looked good but his supporting cast and the offensive scheme made his stats look terrible.  Now, he has lost some weight and the O will be run by Gary Kubiak, the guy that made Arian Foster into a fantasy legend for a few years.  Pierce will not take over this season and Rice just might turn in a vintage Ray Rice-type season.  And everyone that grabs him in the middle rounds will be very happy owners.

Chris Johnson

As with Rice, Johnson did look good but two factors hurt him terribly.  The Titans suffered awfully bad with the QB injuries last season allowing teams to simply stack the line nearly every game to stop Johnson.  The other factor was the brutal schedule Johnson faced, including 6 games against the top 9 rushing Ds in terms of YPG last season.  Now, he is on a team that looked almost overly committed to running the ball last season and, at 28 and soon to be 29, is still considered in his prime years.  He is going in the seventh round in some cases and is a worthwhile player to have as he will likely look more like the CJ2K of old this season.

WRs

Keenan Allen

Some are fearful he will draw more coverage this season but there is probably enough talent at WR and TE in San Diego to negate that.  Also, consider this: Allen finished 17th among WRs last season and essentially wasn’t a factor the first three games.  He averaged about 11 fantasy ppg last season and, if you give him those points for three more games, he is practically a top 10 WR going as roughly the 15th best WR right now.  And he was a rookie last season coming off a knee injury.  Now, he is at full-strength with a full camp at starter under his belt…

Jeremy Maclin

Maclin often got a bit overshadowed by his former teammate, DeSean Jackson, but, statistically, an argument could be made he is an equal receiver.  Consider years 2,3, and 4 combined for both players.  Both started 44 games.  Jackson had 167 catches, 3173 yards, and 19 TDs.  Maclin had 202 catches, 2680 yards, and 22 TDs.  In PPR scoring with 1 point per 10 yards, that’s 598 points for Jackson to 602 for Maclin.  While you have to be a little scared of Maclin returning from injury, the Eagles offense is simply too explosive to ignore and Maclin will be a large part of it.  Chip Kelly knows how to get guys open and Maclin is a great PPR option that is going to be a good deal for whoever gets him currently around the 9th round.

Marques Colston

Why is everyone ready to put this guy in the grave this season?  The fact is, he played hurt last season and it showed.  But he played through it and still put up respectable numbers despite the injury.  I think it’s very likely he gets back on track, grabs a few more TDs away from Jimmy Graham, gets back over 1,000 yards, and ends up a top 15 WR yet again.  I’m not ready to bury Colston this season or next.  Or the one after that…

(Wanted to put Justin Hunter in there because I loved some of his highlight reel catches last season, but he is so popular at this point I’m not sure you can classify him as a sleeper now.)

TEs

Garrett Graham

Hey, remember when Garrett Graham had a pretty good season stepping in for Owen Daniels last year?  The Texans did and that’s why they let Daniels go.  He won’t get into the elite tier of TEs but could crack the top 10 with enough redzone looks.  I certainly like him over probably 10 TEs going in front of him in drafts.

Ladarius Green

The popular sleeper and still has to compete with a future Hall-of-Famer but, to put it bluntly, this guy looked amazingly talented last season when he got the chance.  Simply put, he looks like that future Hall-of-Famer he plays alongside in his younger days.

Defense

Buffalo Bills

Did you know the Bills finished 8th in defensive scoring last season?  And they brought in former head coach Jim Schwartz as their new coordinator?  I have a rule with picking sleeper defenses: grab the one that brought in a former HC as the new DC.  The idea here being the guy was a good enough DC previously to warrant getting a HC position, he must still be pretty good.  It worked in 2011 with Wade Phillips taking Houston from 31st in scoring to 2nd.  Worked again in 2012 with Jack Del Rio taking Denver from 20th to 2nd.  And it will work again this year with Schwartz in Buffalo.  Enjoy!