Last Minute Fantasy Football Pickups of Week 1 – Mariota and Brown

Good to be back to fantasy football and making crazy picks again.  All ownership percentages will be taken from CBS Sports this season as they are typically the highest so if you play on another site, these guys should be more readily available.  Also, I’ll be doing two groups of four players each this season.  One group will be players owned in 20-50% of leagues.  The second group will be the same as last season with players that are owned in less than 20% of leagues.  Week 1 is tough for these picks but still some good ones to go after.  Let’s pick ’em!


 

20-50% owned tier

Pickup of the Week – QB Marcus Mariota – Owned: 42%

Gambling with the rookie but the match up against the Bucs is too good to pass up.  Remember the 5 TDs in the first half by Flacco against them last season?  Yeah, their passing D isn’t great and, while Mariota is not Flacco at this point, you have to believe the opportunity is there for a big game.  And add in the potential rushing numbers Mariota might tack on and you could be looking at a top 10 finish for him this week.  The only question will be can his line protect him from the strong defensive front sported by the Bucs.  I think they’ll do enough for him to have a solid start to his promising career.  (Projection: 240-2, 45-1)

Honorable Mentions

WR Marvin Jones – Owned: 32% – Probably a little too much of a forgotten man at this point but shouldn’t be for long.  If he’s fully healthy, he’s got top 20 potential, easily, and should get off to a good start at Oakland as they might focus too much on stopping Hill and Green.  I have a feeling I won’t be able to put him on this list much longer.  (85-1)

TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins – Owned: 43% – Just loved the talent he showed in his very short time on the field last season.  Now, he gets a clean bill of health, another season wiser, an improvement at QB (hopefully), and a layup for a defense to play against in Week 1 in Tennessee.  Add in a banged up Mike Evans and Seferian-Jenkins looks primed for a visit to the end zone this week.  (65-1)

Minnesota Vikings Defense – Owned: 29% – A lot of young and hungry lions on this D and they get the team that, personnel-wise, went through the most disastrous off-season in recent memory in the 49ers.  Unless Kaepernick took a major step forward in his development since last year, the Vikings D could be feasting in week 1.  (12 points)


20% or less tier

Pickup of the Week – WR Corey Brown – Owned: 7%

Swinging for the fences with this home run hitter in week 1.  I liked his ability to get downfield last season and I think he catches at least one bomb this week against the Jags.  I wouldn’t except him to get much more as Ginn and Olsen will likely get the volume.  But don’t be surprised to see a 50+ yard TD out of this guy as he’s very capable of that.  The Jags defense is scarier than most people give them credit for but more so against the run than the pass.  Newton should find Brown and start his fantasy season off with a bang. (4-80-1)

Honorable Mentions

RB Benny Cunningham – Owned: 19% – Tough match up against the Seahawks but I don’t mind Cunningham in PPR this week.  He’s compact and elusive and has really nice hands.  Probably won’t do a ton on the ground but should be good as a receiver and might sneak one in.  (90 total yards-1)

RB Khiry Robinson – Owned: 11% – Pretty much the same story as Cunningham except he’ll not get the carries with Ingram around.  And who knows?  Maybe Brees will look his way on a short one in the red zone as he tries to replace his favorite target in Jimmy Graham.  Not confident of that but it’s not impossible… (60 total yards-1)

WR Allen Hurns – Owned: 18% – I like the ability of Marquise Lee more but he’s doubtful so Hurns gets a chance to repeat his week 1 magic from last season against the Panthers.  Certainly not expecting the same numbers but I’m hoping Bortles proves he’s better than I think and gets plenty of throws to Hurns.  He has good size and I think the defense might focus a little more on Robinson when red zone time comes letting Hurns snag one.  (5-70-1)

10 Fantasy Football Sleepers for 2015

Time to dig into my sleepers for this season.  A lot of guys I like that I think are worth reaching on this time around so hard to pick just ten.  I will be using the current ADP for each position from FantasyPros so those numbers could change.  Here we go!


 

QB

Sam Bradford – Philadelphia Eagles – ADP: 16

Little mystery here as Bradford is a popular sleeper everywhere.  The simple reality is this: if he stays healthy and hits, he’s a top 10 QB with top 5 potential.  Not bad for a guy you can stash behind a starter even in the largest of leagues.  And I have to believe Chip Kelly wouldn’t have sold the farm like he did to get him if he wasn’t the perfect QB in his eyes.  Little risk and high reward here.

Andy Dalton – Cincinnati Bengals – ADP: 24

I mentioned in my QB rankings that his top 3 targets missed a combined 34 games last season and star A.J. Green played hurt quite a bit.  If his key receivers can stay on the field and that running game continues to show its legitimacy behind him, there is little reason to think he won’t be a solid start most weeks.  Yes, he might be up and down at times.  But with healthy targets, I expect more ups from him and the potential for a top 10 season.


RB

All NFC South Starters – Mark Ingram (ADP: 12), Jonathan Stewart (19), Doug Martin (32), Devonta Freeman (40)

Improved offensive lines for most of these guys is the key reason for the love.  Particularly, Tampa had one of the worst looking run-blocking lines in the league last season and all Bucs RBs suffered.  Don’t discount Martin’s talent just yet and enjoy the value you’ll get out of him this season.  Atlanta was nearly as bad and when they were blocking, Freeman really looked strong at times.  I think he takes a nice leap this season and will ultimately outproduce Coleman.

Joseph Randle – Dallas Cowboys – ADP: 21

I really think people are sleeping on Randle and he is one of the steals of the draft this season.  The fear of McFadden is downright baffling to me.  He looked old and slow in Oakland last season and there is little reason to believe that gets him into a heavy workload in Dallas this year.  Put it this way.  With Randle’s off-the-field issues, the Cowboys had to bring in an insurance policy for the guy they liked so they grabbed an aging veteran.  That’s all McFadden should be considered: insurance.  Randle is the more talented back and everyone that passes on him on draft day will be kicking themselves by Week 3 for their oversight.


WR

Brandin Cooks – New Orleans Saints – ADP: 13

Was a stud indoors last season and will play most of his games (12) there this season.  Add that to the loss of Jimmy Graham from this offense and Cooks is primed for a huge season as someone will have to be Drew Brees’ favorite target.  Don’t be surprised to see Cooks finish in the top 10 at WR with a chance at top 5 numbers.  The TD total just might find its way into double digits for this explosive young player.

Breshad Perriman – Baltimore Ravens – ADP: 46

The lingering injury is becoming a concern but the situation is still too good to pass up on this rookie.  He enters an offense directed by former Bears head coach Marc Trestman, who focused on getting the ball exclusively to his studs more than most coaches in the league.  A lot of Bear’s box scores had no one other than the starters touching the ball.  This bodes well for Perriman as he could easily be a red zone favorite for Joe Flacco.  If he can get healthy, he might be a strong #2 by mid-season for fantasy owners.

Marvin Jones – Cincinnati Bengals – ADP: 68

Probably a forgotten commodity because of the injury that kept him out all of last season but don’t sleep on his talent.  He’ll go undrafted in many leagues but my guess is he’ll be rostered in most leagues no later than week 4.  And if he gets back to his 2013 self, he’ll be in many starting lineups by mid-season.  A fully healthy Bengals’ offense will be one of the best in the league and Jones will be a big reason for that.  His ability to aggressively go after the ball will once again show what a red zone threat he can be in 2015.


TE

Jordan Cameron – Miami Dolphins – ADP: 8

Another forgotten player because of injury but things have changed for Cameron.  An improved QB, a better offense, and a coordinator that won’t get him killed should help Cameron make his way into the top 5 at TE this season.  His talent is almost as good as any other TE in the league and he should prove that this season.  A double-digit TD total wouldn’t be the least bit shocking to me.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ADP: 24

Showed tantalizing talent in a very short period of time on the field last season.  The injuries have to scare you a little but the situation is fantastic.  Two stud WRs on the outside should keep things easy for him in the middle.  And a rookie QB should be looking his way often as a safety valve.  While he won’t have a monopoly on red zone targets in Tampa, he could still put up enough numbers to creep into the top 12 at TE.  Can’t wait to watch him work this season.


Defense

Denver Broncos – ADP: 11

Ranked outside the top ten and will finish top 5, maybe even top 2.  Wade Phillips takes over as the new DC and just take a look at what he did when he took over in Houston.  The season before he took over, the Texans finished 31st in scoring.  His first season in Houston, they finished 2nd.  Now he takes over a Denver defense with a LB crew that should have Phillips licking his chops when game planning.  Say what you will about Phillips as a head coach, this man can and will get it done as a coordinator.

10 Fantasy Players Not Drafted But Might Be Needed Later

As is the case every fantasy football season, there are plenty of players that go undrafted on draft day that will make impacts later in the season.  Here’s 10 I think you will need to keep in mind as the season progresses.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Houston Texans

Had some very nice fantasy games last season in Tennessee and will have an upgraded receiving corps to throw to this season in Houston.  He’s a good bye-week player when the match-up is right and, with an easy-looking schedule to begin the season, he might be getting some fantasy attention very early.

Ryan Nassib, QB, New York Giants

A bit of a leap here since Eli Manning has been incredibly durable during his career but still worth noting.  The Giants offensive line was simply terrible last season and it doesn’t appear that will change much.  Couple that with some brutal pass rushers Manning will see in the first few weeks and an injury becomes a little more plausible.  Nassib has looked good in the preseason so he might become a hot pickup if Eli were to go down.

Donald Brown, RB, San Diego Chargers

Brown looked very good at times last season splitting time in the Indy backfield with Trent Richardson and he will likely see the field even if no injuries occur in SD.  But if either Danny Woodhead or Ryan Mathews go down, he would be probably the number 1 pickup on the waiver wire that week.  If you drafted one of those guys and can spare the roster space, it might be a good idea to grab him now.

Benny Cunningham, RB, St. Louis Rams

Already a lot of buzz around him since he got the start in game 3 of the preseason and he showed plenty of talent last season when he got carries.  The problem with Cunningham is Coach Jeff Fisher typically sticks with one back so he likely won’t see the field unless Zac Stacy suffers an injury.  In my opinion, however, Stacy’s running style is very bruising and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he does suffer the injury needed for Cunningham to become the starter.

Joseph Randle, RB, Dallas Cowboys

While a lot of people like Lance Dunbar as the backup to Demarco Murray, I prefer Randle.  Dunbar is a bit too small to handle being the full-time guy which would give Randle the opportunity to shine in a potent offense (and possibly goal line touches).  While he won’t put up Murray-type numbers because of Dunbar’s presence, he will still be pretty good especially when the match-ups are right.

Jarrett Boykin, WR, Green Bay Packers

Most fantasy players are already well aware of what Boykin can do after he got the chance to play because of injuries last season.  With the injury histories of the two guys in front of him, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him get that chance again.  And don’t forget, a lot of his good games came when Aaron Rodgers was sitting out with an injury.  If he can do it without Rodgers, he can definitely do it with a healthy star QB.

Marvin Jones, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Jones will be the #2 in Cincy when he returns from injury as he greatly outplayed Sanu for the spot last season and I would expect that to continue this season.  Jones has a ton of talent and his 10 TDs last season came despite some injuries and starting the season as the #3 WR.  He is big, fast, and has good hands and it wouldn’t surprise me a bit if he actually repeated the double-digit TDs.  If you have an IR spot in your league, go ahead and stash him now.

Miles Austin, WR, Cleveland Browns

With the news today that Josh Gordon is done for the season, Austin will probably be one of the first players picked up this year off the waiver wire in a lot of leagues.  The talent was always there and with the addition of better RBs in Cleveland, Browns WRs (not named Gordon) might be improved this season as defenses will have to show more respect for the running game.  Austin looks to be the beneficiary of all of these factors.

Garrett Graham, TE, Houston Texans

I’ve already mentioned Graham as a sleeper and I think he’ll become a solid player as the season progresses.  With a ton of receiving talent at TE in the NFL these days, it’s hard to justify giving him a roster spot on draft day over so many.  But injuries will happen and, as long as Graham isn’t one of those injuries, he’ll get some love later on.

Tyler Eifert, TE, Cincinnati Bengals

The talent is there and I think he’ll get more chances this season as he enters year 2 of his career.  There are a lot of mouths to feed in Cincy so don’t expect explosive numbers.  But going from 39 catches and 2 TDs last season to 65 and 4 this season doesn’t seem like much of a stretch.  And if that were to happen, those numbers would put him on the brink of top 10 PPR numbers according to last season’s scoring.

5 Things I Got Right/Wrong Last Season

As part of the kickoff to this blog, I’ll share some of the players I got right and wrong as the season progressed last year from the notes I took for myself.


 

5 Players I Got Right


Keenan Allen

Without a doubt the best grab for me last season as I snatched him before his first monster week at Oakland.  The week before that game, he had a solid game on paper against the Cowboys (5-80 yds) but the catches he made in the game were far more impressive than the stats suggested.  He was clearly a guy that could go after the ball against good coverage and, with Rivers starting the season as hot as he did and Floyd officially done for the year at that point, was a great gamble to be solid the rest of the way.  His ownership percentage was about 5% when I grabbed him so definitely the player I can most brag about.  In fact, because I was loaded at WR at the time, had to drop T.Y. Hilton to get him, who Allen outscored the rest of the way.  Wish they were all like that.

Marvin Jones

Thought he took over the #2 spot from Sanu (who was dropping balls all season to that point) in the Detroit game where he look great but for some reason the experts still weren’t on him.  I was and I grabbed him Sunday morning and started him in my leagues as I assumed no one would notice him if the experts weren’t mentioning him during the week.  That was the day he went for four TDs.  Love his talent.  Hate his injury history as this preseason has shown us his fragility once again.

Andre Ellington

Looked great when splitting carries with Mendenhall and I assumed would be a decent play if Mendenhall went down and was.  Didn’t really trust him because of Arizona’s terrible O-line last season but is clearly a great player and excellent for PPR.  Just hope the line is improved this season.  Could be a stud and his average draft position is showing that already.

Brandon Lafell

Was a popular sleeper last season and I hated him from the get-go.  Never looked good at really any point to me and, let’s face it, part of that is due to his QB’s accuracy.  Nothing he did last season makes me want to ever consider him as a fantasy player again.

Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins

While both of these guys had moments in the sun last season, I never fell for the hype after seeing them in the early games.  Far too many drops for both on easy passes that were hitting them between the numbers.  Made Brady’s numbers suffer badly because of their play.  Were not worth roster spots for me.


5 Player I Got Wrong


Andre Roberts

Looked ridiculously good the first game of the season last year and I assumed would take over for Floyd as the #2.  Caught every catch-able ball that game and did so against good coverage.  Called him a stud in my notes.  Oops.

Alshon Jeffery

Started the season badly last year and I thought might lose his job at one point.  And if you look at his numbers during those games, it certainly looked that way.  Wrong.  He was an absolute stud the rest of the way and part of the best WR duo in the league in my opinion.

Jamaal Charles

About midway through last season, it appeared teams were beginning to stack the line against him and were not respecting the KC passing game (rightfully so, in all honesty).  He had a few sub-par outings and I thought he would continue that the rest of the way as teams adjusted.  Dead wrong as the KC offense proved better than expected and teams really chose not to stack the line down the stretch.  I’m still amazed at the way defenses backed-off the line against the Chiefs late last season.

Stephen Hill

Hill is such a physically imposing guy and showed good hands early last season.  I assumed he was going to have a pretty solid season, particularly as a PPR guy.  In all fairness to him, part of the problem was the erratic play of Geno Smith at QB.  His size suggests he should be a great redzone target but understand one key thing about the Jets last season: they were firmly committed to the run.  They wanted to pound it and they did no matter how bad it was going at times.  This hurt Hill and makes none of their WRs the slightest bit interesting in fantasy this season.  That new RB they have, however…

The Entire Giants Offense

That O-line last season…wow.  At times I kind of assumed they hated Eli Manning the same way the convicts in The Longest Yard temporarily hated their QB and let the opposing D-line destroy him.  That first half against Carolina was the worst pass-blocking I’ve probably ever seen by an O-line in the NFL.  That being said, I assumed Coach Coughlin would, once again, turn that team around and get the relevant fantasy players back on track.  Wrong again.  They never recovered and their fantasy players paid the price.  And just a potential heads-up for this season: they don’t seem to have improved much from last season, as recently reported by ESPN’s Dan Graziano.