Carolina Panthers Fantasy Football Analysis – Week 4

Week 4 – @ TB – W 37-23

QB: Newton a fairly good game but didn’t have to do a lot as D dominated opposing O.  Still good numbers and is playing and running well.  Does need better weapons.

RB: Stewart an average game but would have been better if they need it.  Just didn’t have to do as much on O with the big lead.

WR: Ginn 2 TD catches but nothing else.  He’s getting production because he’s the only guy there and it’s still unreliable.  I’d continue to stay away.

TE: Olsen held to little but game flow hurt.  Still the best receiver on this team and worth starting every week.

OL: Solid game all-around.  Didn’t have to do a lot for passing game and wasn’t great there.  Run blocking was fairly strong, even with big lead.

Def: Terrible QB play helped.  Got run on for a plenty.  Allowed quite a bit though the air in prevent.  It happens when you’re on the field for so many plays.  Contained well.  Gave up huge games to RB and #2 WR.

Carolina Panthers Fantasy Football Analysis – Week 2

Week 2 – vs Houston – W 24-17

QB: Newton a huge game and did a lot of damage on the ground.  Receivers were dropping passes so he could have had more.  Looks good but will be limited by his targets on the field.

RB: Stewart an average game as line wasn’t giving him much.  Just couldn’t open holes for him to get past LOS.  Still looks great when he gets space.

WR: Ginn and Brown both good games with TDs but Ginn showed off pretty bad hands.  Funchess still not doing much but the door is certainly open for him to make a bigger impact.

TE: Olsen a nice game and will probably get even more targets if WRs keep dropping passes.  Should be strong in the coming weeks and probably rest of season.

OL: Not bad against tough D line.  Wasn’t doing a lot for run game but kept QB mostly clean.  Hard to ask for much more considering opponent.

Def: Helped by shaky QB play.  Shutdown run game.  Coverage wasn’t great and would have been torched by better passing game.  Gave up decent games to WRs.  Not much else.

Off-season Fantasy Football Likes and Dislikes – NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

What they needed:  It was no secret what the Falcons’ huge problems were last season: O-line and D.  They also dealt with a lot of injuries but the talent level just wasn’t very good.

Moves I liked:  Not only does this defense look vastly different, they also get new leadership in the form of former Seahawks DC Dan Quinn taking over at head coach.  We should see quite a turnaround by this team in that respect.  A few changes were made on the O-line so, assuming health holds, we could see some improvement there as well.

Moves I disliked:  I’m still a little worried they didn’t do enough to address the O-line issues.  This was a bad unit that dealt with injuries last season and, if a few guys go down again this season, you can forget about owning a RB on this team.  Keep your hype surrounding 3rd rounder Tevin Coleman in check.

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Carolina Panthers

What they needed:  Not much to dislike about this team last season.  Yes, the D was bad early but they played better later in the season.  Basically, they just needed to grab the best players available and upgrade where they could to get a little deeper in the playoffs.

Moves I liked:  A lot of fantasy eyes will be on second-round pick WR Devin Funchess.  At 6’4″ 230 pounds, he should make an excellent combo with second-year WR Kelvin Benjamin.  I think the hype that he’ll be better than Benjamin this season is preposterous but he should make for a nice late-round value pick in 2015.  The departure of DeAngelo Williams also makes Jonathan Stewart a valuable RB on draft day again.

Moves I disliked:  Nothing.  A+ off-season for the Panthers, in my opinion.

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New Orleans Saints

What they needed:  Aside from the erratic play of the D, the O-line’s pass protection issues were glaring from Week 1 last season.  They could not protect Brees at all and he spent more time on the run than most people probably realize.  Their run blocking wasn’t bad but the pass protection needed serious addressing.

Moves I liked:  O-line was heavily addressed this off-season with the blockbuster trade that brought C Max Unger over from the Seahawks for superstar TE Jimmy Graham.  They also used one of their 2 first-round picks on OT Andrus Peat.  This should mean great things for Brees and maybe even better things for RB Mark Ingram, who looked like a phenom at times last season.  C.J. Spiller was also brought in so this backfield is still a headache on draft day.  But my money is on Ingram being the best value on draft day, assuming he isn’t already injured by then…

Moves I disliked:  A+ here as well.  I should mention they also went heavy D in the draft so we should see a bounce-back season from this D, assuming the critics of DC Rob Ryan aren’t correct that he is the most overrated coordinator in football.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

What they needed:  O-line, O-line, O-line.  Gawd, was this unit bad last season.  Contrary to what many may believe, the RBs on this team, including Doug Martin, weren’t that bad and actually looked like very good players…when they were not hit in the backfield by three unblocked defenders.  This D also needed some DB upgrades.

Moves I liked:  Hopefully for the Bucs’ sake, they got their QB of the future in Jameis Winston and, maybe just as important, they nabbed 2 O-linemen in the second round to protect him.  With the exciting players they already have on offense, this could be a surprisingly good O if they can gel quickly.  They’ll be young but potentially explosive.

Moves I disliked:  Not much to dislike but it would have been nice to see them do a little more at DB.  They brought in some depth guys but this could be a pretty bad unit again.  The D is good elsewhere but teams will likely be throwing on them for a ton.  Not good news when you are in the same division as the Saints and Falcons.

Grading My 2014 Fantasy Football Busts

Time to take a look back at the guys I thought were busts coming into the season.  Happy to say that I pretty much nailed every one of these.  If you chose some other options rather than these guys with where they were going in drafts, you probably did okay.  Here goes!

QB

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Peyton Manning – Grade: B+

To say I was right about calling Manning a bust may be seen as a stretch for some, but I would obviously disagree and here’s the simple reason why: his draft position was too high.  Being projected as the #1 QB in drafts and typically going around pick 5-7 was just too high a cost to me.  I was just arguing that his numbers would come down (which they did) and you would have been fine grabbing another QB with a later pick.  And anyone who had him for the brutal end-of-season stretch is certainly regretting that pick.

Colin Kaepernick – Grade: A+

Projected as a top 10 QB and finished 16th.  Just didn’t like the offense and, since I thought two of his receiving targets were going to be busts, this was an obvious bust to me.  Will be interesting next season depending on who the 49ers hire as their new head coach and what kind of offense they bring.  As disappointing as he was in 2014, Kaepernick might be a sneaky sleeper in 2015.

RB

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Toby Gerhart – Grade: A+++

Was my Bust of the Year and I think I can say I was totally right about this one.  I also stated his numbers would end up worse than MJD’s numbers from the previous season with the Jags and I was also correct on that prediction.  I really doubt the Jags’ starter next season is currently on their roster so no reason to think Gerhart’s value will be much of anything come draft day 2015.

Bernard Pierce – Grade: A++

Didn’t think he was a good RB in 2013 and that carried over into 2014.  The Ravens’ problem at RB in 2013 was their atrocious offensive line and their scheme.  Both got a huge upgrade in 2014 with the hiring of Kubiak as OC and the excuses for Pierce no longer exist.  I don’t think he ever becomes a starter again and his days as a feature back (not due to an injury to a starter) are over.

WR

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Michael Crabtree – Grade: A+

Was being drafted as a top 15 WR and I still have no idea why.  Finished 52nd among WRs just ahead of fellow projected top 15 busts, Garcon and Fitzgerald.  Crabtree makes a very occasional play that justifies the excitement around him.  The problem, of course, is he makes one of those plays once every 5 0r 6 games.  There is zero consistency there and I have no reason to believe that changes next season.

Percy Harvin –  Grade: A

Projected top 25 and finished 58th among WRs.  As with Crabtree, I didn’t think the consistency would be there and I was right on that.  The trade didn’t help as much as I thought it might but, then again, going from one running offense to another isn’t going to do much for most WRs.  Will be an interesting projection next season depending on how his situation shakes out but no reason to think his boom-or-complete-bust production won’t continue.

TE

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Vernon Davis – Grade: A+++

Wow!  I thought Davis’ numbers would come down this season but I certainly didn’t assume he would be the 36th best TE in fantasy and still play most of the season.  I do think Davis could bounce back from this so he’s worth keeping an eye on going into next season.  Will be interesting to see who his new coach is and how they plan to use him in the new offense.

Defense

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Carolina Panthers – Grade: A++

Projected by many as the #2 defense off the board on draft day and finished with a 2 by their name.  Just have to add a zero behind it.  And had they not had their 31 point outburst in week 17 and only scored, say, 10 points, they would have finished 27th.  I repeat, drafting a D early is a really horrible strategy that will likely hurt you a ton more than help.  Lesson learned, all!

Carolina Panthers Week 17 Fantasy Analysis

Week 17 – @ Atlanta – W 34-3

QB: Newton did little passing as run game did all the work.  Some drops hurt.  Still a good game as rushing production was good.

RB: Williams DNP.  Stewart an okay game but big lead gave carries to backups late.  Looked good, however.  Whittaker looked great in mop-up duty.

WR: Benjamin did little and had 2 bad drops early, one would have been a very long play and possible TD.  Brown had okay game but most came running.  Still looks explosive.

TE: Olsen did little as run game dominated.  Nothing to wory about on him.

OL: Was great everywhere.  QB was basically never touched.  Did great job for rushers against weak D.  Just gashed D on the ground.

Def: Run D was okay but lead limited carries.  Coverage was good.  Pass rush was incredible and dominated game.  Gave up good game to #2 WR.  Nothing else.

Carolina Panthers Week 16 Fantasy Analysis

Week 16 – vs Cleveland – W 17-13

QB: Newton a good game, especially on the ground.  Throws weren’t great and receivers had to make some plays to catch a few but still took good risks with the ball in this one.

RB: Williams DNP.  Stewart a huge game and looks phenomenal.  If he was alone in the backfield next season, he’d be a top 15, possibly top 10 back.

WR: Benjamin made great plays but didn’t get enough throws close to him.  Did look like he dropped a TD but coverage was there.  Cotchery similar numbers and look decent.  Brown did little but still think he’s better.

TE: Olsen only one catch.  Tough match up so not a lot to worry about but still a little disappointing.

OL: Played great, especially run blocking.  A few runs plays where they flat out dominated.

Def: Bad QB play helped.  Looked strong again and decent against the run.  Gave up good game to TE on one play but held everything else in check.

Carolina Panthers Week 15 Fantasy Analysis

Week 15 – vs TB – W 19-17

QB: Newton DNP.  Anderson looked pretty sharp and had okay game.  Was pretty accurate and had some zip on his throws.  Used his key targets all game.

RB: Stewart a decent game against a decent run D.  Continues to look pretty good as the feature guy with Williams out.

WR: Benjamin and Cotchery good games as Cotchery gets his first TD.  Benjamin made some really good catches and continues to look like a stud.  Brown did little and was missed on a long TD by QB.

TE: Olsen a big game and was Anderson’s favorite target.  Might be a good sign of things to come for him.

OL: Solid game.  Wasn’t great but wasn’t terrible doing anything against a good D-line.

Def: Helped by bad QB play.  Gave up some good rushing yardage including one big play.  Pass rush was good.  Gave  up good games to RB and WRs.  Nothing else.

Carolina Panthers Week 14 Fantasy Analysis

Week 14 – @ NO – W 41-10

QB: Newton awesome against awful D.  Threw it well, ran well, and protected himself.  Good job trusting his receivers to make plays.

RB: Williams DNP.  Stewart great in this one.  Really looked like he could take over the spot but it’s Carolina.  Not buying it unless Williams is out.

WR: Benjamin a TD but little else.  Not a ton of chances in this one as running game dominated.  Brown decent and looks like a solid PPR play.  Definitely progressing and the #2 now.

TE: Olsen a big game and looked like his earlier season self.  So good and not sure why he didn’t get more throws in other games.

OL: Looked really good and handled bad D really well.  Run blocking was incredible in this one.

Def: Lead limited runs but was giving up plenty of yards.  Pass rush was decent against bad O-line.  Shutdown elite TE.  Gave up no good games.  Not buying into this yet.

Carolina Panthers Week 13 Fantasy Analysis

Week 13 – @ Minnesota – L 31-13

QB: Newton was inaccurate and struggled badly.  Pass Rush got to him as well.  Ran well.

RB: Stewart looked great and was very patient in this one.  Williams got injured so Stewart could be a good play with Williams out.

WR: Benjamin a decent game but should have been bigger if QB was better.  Beat D on long play but QB missed.  Would have been long TD.  Brown got long TD but little else.  Continues to look like a game-breaker.

TE: Olsen decent but also suffered because of QB.  Should be fine going forward.

OL: Strong game run blocking but not good in pass protection.

Def: Average against weaker run game.  Game flow limited passes against.  Gave up good games to #1 WR and TE.  Held everything else in check.

Carolina Panthers Week 11 Fantasy Analysis

Week 11 – vs Atlanta – L 17-19

QB: Newton was okay but struggled a bit behind bad blocking.  Good fantasy game but a lot of damage came late.  Couldn’t get things going early.

RB: A mess.  Neither Williams or Stewart impressed.  Just can’t trust.

WR: Benjamin another huge game.  Is talented enough to be a top 10 WR next season but probably won’t be drafted that way.  Brown caught one pass for a long TD and continues to show elite speed.

TE: Olsen a solid game.  Could have been better if QB play wasn’t erratic.

OL: Looked awful early but improved.  Run blocking was pretty good against weak D but pass blocking was average.  Giving this team problems right now.

Def: Contained well and avoided the big plays.  Run D looked better.  Coverage was decent and pass rush fairly good.  Gave up a big game to #2 WR and decent games to other WRs.  Held everything else to little.